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Tuesday, November 30, 2010
1) BEST CHINESE IPO WEEK in History? Next week there are six Chinese IPO's of MAJOR interest. I will do a blog on all of them this weekend.
Think YouTube --> Youku.com - Operates China's leading internet television/online video portal. Youku.com Info
Think Amazon --> China Dangdang - China's largest online book retailer and e-commerce platform. Dangdang Info
Think Mobile Apps --> Ski-mobi - Mobile application store in China with a leading 50% share and over 479 million users. Ski-mobi Info
BONA - Leading distributor of domestic films in China. BONA Info
Lentuo International - Largest private automobile retailer in Beijing. Lentuo Info
SemiLEDS Co. - Manufactures LED chips and components used in general lighting applications. SemiLEDS Info
2) IBD articles can at times really light a fire under certain stocks/sectors. Tonight there was an article on Chinese Coal. Watch List - CHNR, YZC, LLEN, PUDA, SCOK Read Article
3) New Food Safety Bill was passed today. Watch List - VIFL, SDIX, PURE Read Article
4) Rare Earth theme exists but new stock to trade soon. Read Article Rare earth exploration company Avalon Rare Metals (AVL.TO: Quote) said on Tuesday it had received approval from New York Stock Exchange regulators to apply for a listing on the NYSE Amex exchange.
The Toronto-based company said it must still meet certain conditions before the listing will be official, and it expects the review process to take four to six weeks.
super-trades that are active:
TSRID - entered low $6's hit $12. Looks good for continued move. 1m float 2m o/s. Great action today. Memories of CDTID still exist. Nothing guaranteed but with proper entries and manageable trade this may be a fun reverse split play. Read Original Blog
MITK - Called at $3.35 hit $4.25 in two days. Pullback today. Again I said 1-12 months I can see this doubling from $3.35. Read Original Blog
I usually always take some profit off when up after first pop so I can manage the rest of the shares accordingly in case of dips. Do not trade just because I do, I can be wrong. Low floats not for chasing entries or large positions. Do your own due diligence. This blog is for my stock ideas only. I am great at finding them, trading them is always more challenging. This blog is not investment advice and I may change my mind as market conditions dictate.
Monday, November 29, 2010
That being said, stocks with reverse splits that were left with a low float 2 million or less at the time of the split have made some big moves in the past year. None of them had EPS to support the moves but they had some pretty wild moves.
SCOK - $5 to $53
CALL - $4 to $39
CDTID - $4 to $44
Today TSRI starts trading after a 1 for 2 reverse split yesterday, leaving them with 2m shares outstanding and and approximately 1m shares in the float float.
Read Press Release on Reverse Split
Bloomberg Stats Pre-Split
TSRI closed at $2.30 on Monday so it should open at $4.30 or so Tuesday.
Cash Per Share based on the last 10-Q is $8.7m / 2m shares or $4.35 per share.
Book Value/Equity per share based on the last 10-Q is $12.6m / 2m shares or $6.30 per share
Read Balance Sheet from Last 10-Q
While TSRI is not guaranteed to make a wild move like SCOK, CALL, and CDTI, it has the potential given the reverse split.
Again, Low float stocks can be volatile and dangerous and are not meant for large positions or chasing in my opinion. Do own diligence and do not follow me or anyone we all can be wrong.
Today, as a NASDAQ company specializing in information technology staff augmentation and IT consulting, TSR, Inc. continues to expand and transform its services to meet and anticipate its clients’ IT needs.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
The Mobile-Payment Gold Rush
MOBILE PAYMENTS IN THE U.S. are expected to grow at a 68% compounded annualized-growth rate over the next five years, fueled by growing smartphone share of the mobile-phone market. Read Article
Mobile Payments to Reach $214 Billion By 2015, Aite Forecasts Read Article
Enter MITK.OB http://www.miteksystems.com/
Float 12.3m Outstanding Shares 18.3m Bloomberg
"Mitek Systems Inc., the leading software provider in the field"
MITK has two very exciting software products in this fast growing field. One is patented and the other is patent pending:
Mobile Deposit - See Website Patented in the fourth quarter, Mobile Deposit gives smartphone users an accurate, secure and easy-to-use way to deposit checks simply by snapping photos of their checks with the cameras on their mobile devices. Mitek's Mobile Deposit patent, entitled "Systems for Mobile Image Capture and Processing of Checks," was issued on August 17, 2010. Among other elements, the patent contains claims that cover capturing an image of a financial document such as a check using a camera in a Smartphone or other mobile device, and transmitting the image to a bank server for processing and deposit into a customer's account.
Mobile Deposit has been widely embraced by leading technology solutions integrators and application services providers for the financial services industry, including Fiserv, NCR, FIS, Jack Henry & Associates, WAUSAU Financial Systems, BankServ, J&B Software, Bluepoint, Cachet Financial and RDM, among others. In addition, the Company has partnered with leading mobile-banking-application providers, including mFoundry, Clairmail, Kony Solutions and Monetise Americas.
More and more banks, credit unions and payment-management organizations, including PayPal, with the Mobile Check Capture feature of its PayPal Mobile app for iPhones, are deploying Mitek's mobile check deposit solution to their customers, which the Company expects will continue throughout the remainder of 2010 and into 2011. The Company anticipates announcing significantly increased adoption and use in the near future by large financial institutions and payment management organizations.
Mobile Photo Bill Pay - See Website Early in the current quarter, Mitek introduced Mobile Photo Bill Pay™, its latest innovative application for the financial services industry, which allows people to pay their bills simply by snapping photos of their paper bills or invoices. With Mitek's new Mobile Photo Bill Pay app, users can submit electronic payments from their smartphones without having to write checks, lick stamps, visit a payment location or even use their personal computers. DeBello said Mitek is now in discussions for the distribution of Mobile Phone Bill Pay with a number of leading banks, integrators of technology solutions and applications services providers for the financial services industry.
Mitek won BAI's first MobileLink award for its new app that allows users to capture and pay bills with a mobile phone the same way they capture and deposit checks.
“We’re seeing an unprecedented level of interest in our products,” company president and chief executive James B. DeBello said at an investor conference call.
For more than 20 years, Mitek Systems (OTC:MITK.OB.ob - News) has provided financial institutions with advanced imaging and analytics software to authenticate and extract data from imaged checks and other financial documents. Mitek's patented technology is currently used by all leading financial organizations in the United States to process more than 10 billion items per year.
Today, Mitek is applying its patented technology and extensive expertise in image correction, optical character recognition and intelligent data extraction to mobile devices. Using Mitek Mobile Apps, smartphone users can now deposit checks, pay bills, save receipts and fax documents while on the road or sitting at a desk -- eliminating trips to the bank, Post Office and file cabinet. Simply take a picture of the document and Mitek does the rest -- correcting image distortion, extracting relevant data, routing images to their desired location, and processing transactions through users' financial institutions.
Financials - MITK is finally is reaping some financial rewards after years of investment Read Article. MITK just had their first profitable quarter of $0.01 EPS but sales were up 100% and gross margins were 87%. I see this company as one just about to become very profitable after years of investment. So it is a future earnings play on a very growing theme. Read Last Earnings Report
Again, I am not in MITK.OB as a fast trade and I think it can at least double from $3.35 in the next 1-12 months.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Friday, November 12, 2010
$AERL - still think this will go higher...macau is booming...they are starting to meet with funds..... in with core shares since low $7's.
No other new stocks right now seeing if markets will recover.....watching for earnings reports
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
$TORM - not holding much at all into earnings on Thursday.....no need after big run up from call at $6.50. Will evaluate report when out.
$AERL - Stock took a healthy dip after run from $5 to $11. Consolidating and gathering some shorts and yesterdays red market was ideal as most stocks took a dip. In my opinion it will go higher as Macau is very hot and this is a pure play and EPS is projected to be $2.85 in 2011. They are working at MGM and LVS casinos. Presenting at a few conferences soon. Again originally called and entered in the low $7's, added a few trading shares in the high $9's but core average still in $7's. Most of my stocks follow this pattern, initial run up then pullback and shorts bash and act like its dead, then they move higher. ie. $TORM, $CCME, $RITT etc.....
No other positions right now.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
1) They are all www.super-trades.com winning stock picks.
2) Shorts were wrong on 6 of 7 of them as only one of them has even pulled back significantly from the original run up even though many shorts called them junk and said they would.
3) They had the EPS growth to support a move and/or a strong growth theme in the news.
Usual disclaimers - Do not chase my stocks and do your own research. I can be wrong.
AERL - I first called AERL in the low $7's last Thursday, November 4 Read Blog Post. It hit $11.55 today and closed at $10.70. As we learned from TORM recently, stocks can take a short breather but that does not mean that the story is over. Of all the stocks I have recently called, I think the story and the fundamentals here are the best. Macau is growing like gangbusters, casino stocks have been on fire, and AERL is a macau pure play with a forecasted $2.85 EPS in 2011. That is better EPS than even CCME, another huge super-trades winner. The stock is now free to move since last week as the warrant overhang is over. I think this stock is going much higher, and I am in from the low $7's and have alot of cushion to see this play out. But to me it is like owning CCME when it was $10.70, with even stronger EPS.
CCME - What can I say, this is a super-trades winner and the type of play I am known for. While this did take much longer than I originally thought (as I mis-timed the attack on china stocks over the summer), CCME came to fruition to be everything I always thought it could be today. I originally called this stock last year at $7.50 when the symbol was TMI Read Blog Post and it hit $22.30 today on a great Q3 report and guidance raise. Shorts were wrong here (they can be very wrong at times). Think stock can go higher in time, but no need for me to have any kind of large position after the run up we have had and stocks like AERL being available which to me is like owning CCME when it was $10.70. It was rewarding to see CCME, a stock I had such conviction on, come to full fruition.
TORM - I called TORM at $6.50 on Tuesday October 26th Read Blog Post, and it hit $14 today! Again shorts were wrong on this as it was a real undervalued company with EPS and a mineral in high demand. I think the stock will move higher into earnings this Thursday. I took half off in the $11's and we play it day by day as this appears to be very strong.
RITT - I am no longer in this stock, but I called it in the low $2's on October 21st Read Blog Post and it is still in the $7's today, even after a bad earnings report (as I also predicted). Short sellers can be very wrong at times (as can longs). RITT had a press release with an order from a customer in India the other day.
HIHO - Called this stock on Tuesday October 19th at $2.80, Read Blog Post and it hit $4.24 today and closed at $3.73 after a decent earnings report. Good one to take profit on and watch for more news if it pulls back significantly. I no longer have a position here.
ANTP - Called this stock around $4 on October 19th Read Blog Post and it hit $6.37 on October 22nd and has now pulled back to the low $5's. Definitely a stock to keep on my watch list for more product news and the next earnings report.
LIVE - A stock I called in the $4's on October 14th Read Blog Post It exploded to $22.25 on October 21st in a bizarre explosion and I sold that day in the $10-$13 range. Since then it has fallen all the way back to the $6's. I have no position and think it will take EPS, an acquisition, or product news for this to move again.
Watch China mineral stocks as the news has been China is buying up commodities.
Friday, November 5, 2010
$AERL EPS/growth - check ($2 eps 2011) hot theme - check (macau) called at low $7's going much higher
$TORM should keep going higher into next thursday earnings....$20 target by hedgie yesterday and trapped shorts
Thursday, November 4, 2010
That is why I bought AERL in the low $7's, as it is a pure play on Macau gaming. AERL, formerly known as CS China Acquisition Corp., acquired AGRL on February 2, 2010. The principal business activities of AGRL’s wholly owned subsidiaries are to hold Profit Interest Agreements with its VIP room gaming promoters that provide AGRL with 100% of the profit streams from the operations of the VIP room gaming promoters. AGRL’s VIP room gaming promoters currently participate in the promotion of two major luxury VIP gaming facilities in Macau, China, the largest gaming market in the world. One of the VIP gaming rooms is located at the top-tier MGM Grand Macau Casino in downtown Macau that is operated by the MGM Grand Paradise S.A. The other Macau VIP gaming facility is located in the luxury 5-star hotel, the Star World Hotel & Casino in downtown Macau, which is operated by Galaxy Casino, S.A.
Recent acquisition of another VIP room:
On October 12, the Company announced it had entered into a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding to acquire another VIP gaming promoter, which operates in the Venetian Resort on the Cotai Strip and earns revenues based upon the fixed commission rate of 1.25%. Currently, the Company's VIP gaming rooms are located in Downtown Macau. The Company believes that this acquisition will offer an alternative for its current patrons and be accretive to both gross revenues and net earnings. As a result of this acquisition, the Company believes that approximately 90% of its revenues will be generated under the 1.25% fixed commission, which would further reduce monthly earnings volatility.
In latest earnings release, the Company said 2010 Net Income will be $36-$39 million based on the current rooms. Read Earnings Release
They have approximately 25-27m shares o/s after the recent exercise of approximately 14m warrants. Read Article The float should be 6-19m depending on how many of the warrant holders actually hold the stock for higher prices. For 2010, I estimate EPS will be approximately $1.40-$1.65. According to an article on SeekingAlpha Read Article, in 2011 with the new Venetian VIP room, AERL could do approximately $55m of net income (I am trying to verify that calculation), or over $2 EPS. That would put AERL at a forward P/E of 3-4 in a pure play hot sector. Assuming Macau stays hot and Chinese stocks remain in favor, I could see AERL targeting the $12-$20 range eventually.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
As I stated, the Company reports earnings Nov 11th, already has $0.43 EPS for the first 6 months of 2010, and titanium dioxide shortages are in the news. I said this is a small cap with a real story and EPS that could catch fire as it had both EPS, growth, and a strong theme. $KRO has almost a 20 P/E in the same industry so if $TORM can get near a $1 EPS run rate this could be an interesting story. However, that is contingent on the next EPS report.
However, I said TORM in sweet spot...new article today shows DOW looking for ways to reduce dependence on white titanium dioxide.......TORM has a unique solution:
DOW article Read Article
Management said growth the rest of the year to show improvement over prior year (Possible $1 EPS run rate - my estimate). Easy comps this quarter. Also, showing Asia demand from the 10-Q:
In 2010, we anticipate market conditions for our products in certain end markets to improve. Based on our conversations with customers, economic data and information from other market participants, it appears that the worldwide demand in the paint and plastics markets has started to stabilize. We saw significant improvement in our more mature HITOX sales during the last quarter of 2009, which has continued during the first six months of 2010. In Asia, HITOX sales for in-country use have increased and we are now starting to see production rates for HITOX used in export products increase. In addition to improving market conditions in the US and Asia, HITOX sales are beginning to benefit from new niche markets, which we are hopeful will generate additional incremental revenue for HITOX this year.
That is why I said do not short TORM and that is why shorts were squeezed and probably will have more pain to endure.
Again, low floats not for big positions or chasing. If you are like me in on the original call you can enjoy some stress free profits.
Monday, November 1, 2010
SHZ - Ran because of a seeking alpha article that said because they have fluorite they probably have rare earth minerals (hot theme). Well if a Chinese small cap had rare earth, believe me they would be putting out press releases everyday on it. Did not see the substance here nor the EPS so I expected this to drop eventually and it has. Did not have the EPS, growth, or realistic part of hot sector theme.
LIVE - I called this a week before it ran and then the day it ran when it was in the $6's. The day it ran I called it as a sympathy play on TZOO/Groupon/Local Internet advertising (hot theme) and the fact it has an extremely low float as well as cash per share was high. Expected it to go up but not all the way to $10-$13 where I got completely out. Great trade but it will take EPS, news or an acquisition to make this run again in my opinion. Did not have the substance to sustain beyond the low float run. An overload of shorts could always cause a squeeze where there is a catalyst but that catalyst would need to appear first. Did not have the EPS, growth and the theme faded after TZOO's earnings.
RITT - I originally called and played RITT on LIVE sympathy because of the low float. I was in under $2 and out in the $4's. I thought the move it made to $8 would happen the first day of the run. However, it continued to squeeze frustrated shorts. I believe that is because it was a hot Israeli tech play in the same group as RDCM which ran last year, and earnings are due, and supposedly a new product showed up on its website. It will take great EPS or hot product news to mitigate this eventually falling and I don't expect EPS to be all that great. Shorts will get relief if EPS is not all that and there is not a hot product to launch. Did not have the EPS, but was in a hot sector so it squeezed. If EPS is not good and there is no guidance for growth, it will eventually show that it does not deserve the hot sector theme. But if EPS or a hot new product is there it would be sustained because there would be created hope for EPS.
TORM - I called this stock in the $6's and it hit the $11's right away. I sold half but kept half because this is the one stock that has a reason to go higher. TORM did .43 EPS for the first six months of the year and management said the rest of the year would show growth year over year. So this company could be on pace for close to a $1 EPS run rate while competitor KRO has a P/E of near 20. Titanium dioxide is in great demand these days and TORM has a synthetic process to make a cheaper version to avoid the expensive white kind. There have been many articles out there about the demand for titanium dioxide. So you have EPS to support a move, a good story in a hot theme (minerals demand), and a low float. I would not short a stock with these characteristics. They have both characteristics. EPS and growth, with a hot sector theme.
Before you short, do the research , every small cap stock is not automatically garbage, although many can be.
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Welcome to super-trades.com, blog home of Superman. Purpose of this blog is for me to discuss my trades and stock ideas (As well as opinions and rants on stock market related issues). I will mention the date and price I enter. As far as exits, I always try to take half off when I have some profit and if I believe in the stock, let the rest run further. I always also use mental stop limits, at which time I would exit and minimize any losses. I do not like to give price targets unless I can support them by P/E in some way or by comparison to another stock. I just post stock trades and ideas that I believe will go higher (or lower for shorts) and the reason I believe that. Individuals should have their own strategies for managing profits and losses. My stock picks tend to NOT be daytrades at all and many take time to move. I am not an investment advisor and this blog should not be considered or followed as investment advice.