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Friday, December 10, 2010

Will TCCO make a monster run like TASR?

In this article, after they received the $9.7m Order for Afghanistan Radios, officials said 2010 sales would be $20m. Read Article

For the 9 months ended June 2010, they had recorded $14.6m of sales and $2.72 of EPS. That means the 4th quarter could be $5-$6m of sales. Q3 ending June 2010 has $6.3m of sales and $1.29 of EPS. Q4 could be approximately $5-6m of sales and $0.80-$1.30 for the fourth quarter. That would leave them with EPS of $3.52-$4.02 for the year and a P/E of 3-4 even with the Friday close in the $14’s. Imagine $3.50-$4 EPS with any kind of decent P/E? From what I read in the last 10-Q they still have over $3m of tax loss carryforwards. The comparable they are up against from last years Q4 is $0.16 EPS. So If my numbers are close to being correct, we could see a headline such as $0.80-$1.30 EPS vs $0.16 in the prior year quarter.

They have said that business was exceptional this year because of the April order of $9.7m for Afghanistan. However they have since received two orders totaling $5.2m for 2011 in Afghanistan and are rolling out new products.

Per the Company, “Backlog at June 26, 2010 amounted to $10,060,000. The orders in backlog are expected to ship during the 2010 and 2011 fiscal years depending on customer requirements and product availability.” Since then they have received the additional $5.2m in orders.

Read 10-Q

With only 1.8m shares o/s and a float of 1.4m, with this EPS and the strength of this sector, it is easy to see why this could become a monster momentum stock. This is a US company founded in 1961 with a P/E of 3-4 and a clean Balance Sheet.

Here is a great article I found on the Company. Read Article

They report Monday morning. Management is always cautious with guidance. They say Earnings could return to a normal level without Afghanistan. However Afghanistan orders are continuing and they are rolling out new products. AAPL also sandbags guidance every quarter. If my number estimates are remotely correct this could be the beginning of a monster run and a new momentum stock and I will add. If I am wrong (and I could be missing something? Taxes?), my average is in the $12’s - so there you have it.

No comments:

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