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Wednesday, March 31, 2010

HWG 10-K out $11+ EPS for the year

HWG, a pick since $40, has been flat, has reported their 2009 EPS of over $11. Thin and volatile stock not for new traders, but I said $10+ EPS.

Read 10-K

CCME files Form 10-K !

I believe this was the last hurdle before institutions buy in heavy:

Read 10-K

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Still holding CCME

Digesting this move and getting ready for another move in my opinion.

Out Half of TRIT at $16.70 range from $15 entry

will manage the rest accordingly

Out Half of NIV at $4.20 from $3.30 Entry

will manage the rest accordingly

Do Not Chase - I bought NIV at $3.30 in Pre Market

10-K out last night $.59 EPS for 2009

would add under $3.50 but would not chase

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

in TRIT $15 After Hours - Here is Why

In TRIT afterhours at 15 and will add tomorrow if I can in 14's

2010 Guidance
For 2010, we anticipate that our revenues will range between $40.6 million and $50.5 million. We anticipate our net income will likely reach between $7.0 million and $9.2 million. We expect that we will be able to reach these revenue and net income projections without receiving further financing.

5.2m shares o/s

EPS guidance is $1.33-$1.75

No more dilution

China Water sector

Guides for:

Revenue Growth: 142% - 200%
Net Income Growth: 81% - 138%
No further financing needed

More to come

Out Half of NIV at $4.30 from $3.30 Entry

will manage the rest accordingly

2 Pieces of super-trades advice

1) If you are a daytrader, need to make money/trade everyday, or are impatient then we have exact opposite styles and you will not like the stocks I usually buy - I waited months for CCME to take off

2) Not ever stock I pick will be a CCME or a own diligence I will have stocks that do not work

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

CCME - Blow Out Earnings & Guidance

China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. Announces 2009 Fourth Quarter and Year-End Financial Results

Fourth Quarter Revenue and Net Income Increased by 90.6% and 99.6%, Respectively

Announces 2010 Net Income Guidance

CCME $1.80 EPS for 2010 without acquisitions throwing off huge crash and growth !!!

FUJIAN, China--(BUSINESS WIRE)--China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (NYSE Amex: CCME) (“CME” or “Company”), China’s largest television advertising operator on inter-city express buses, today announced financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2009.

Financial Highlights – Fourth Quarter 2009 vs. Fourth Quarter 2008

* Revenue increased by 90.6% to $32.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2009 as compared to $16.8 million in the same quarter of 2008;
* Gross margin for fourth quarter was 68.9%;
* Income from operation increased by 104.7% to $19.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2009 as compared to $9.5 million in the same quarter of 2008; and
* Net income increased by 99.6% to $14.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to $7.2 million in the same quarter of 2008.

Financial Highlights – Full Year 2009 vs. Full Year 2008

* Revenue increased 52.3% to $95.9 million in 2009 as compared to $63.0 million in 2008;
* Gross margin for year ended December 31, 2009 was 65.7%;
* Income from operation increased by 61.3% to $56.6 million in 2009 as compared to $35.1 million in 2008;
* Net income increased by 58.2% to $41.7 million in 2009 as compared to $26.4 million in 2008; and
* As of December 31, 2009, the Company had $57.2 million in cash.

Zheng Cheng, CME’s Founder and CEO, commented, “2009 has been an exciting and eventful year for our Company. We started the year as a privately-held business and concluded as a publicly owned company trading on the NYSE Amex. Since our inception in 2003, we have been working hard to successfully grow CME to a multi-million dollar company and to become the market leader in the express bus advertising industry in China. 2009 was the best year in our history as we continued the rapid organic growth of our business by: signing new contracts with additional bus operators partners, both in the areas where we have a strong presence and in new areas as well; entering into exclusive agreements with several operators of airport express buses, broadening our revenue sources to further augment our potential revenue growth through providing additional advertising channels to advertisers and new services to passengers such as the broadcast of the embedded advertisements which are displayed during the broadcasting of the content; and exploring a number of avenues to further grow our market share and geographic coverage through possible acquisitions.”

Discussing 2009 fourth quarter and year-end results, Mr. Cheng noted, “As expected, our fourth quarter was the strongest quarter of the year. Our revenue for the quarter grew by 22.3%, 67.4% and 70.2% compared to the third, second and first quarters of 2009, respectively. Also net income for the quarter increased by 22.7%, 72.8% and 92.0% compared to the third, second and first quarters of 2009, respectively.

He added, “Our network has grown with the signing of several new agreements with bus operators. As of today, our network includes 49 bus operator partners, up from 46 at the end of November; these agreements run from three to eight years. The total number of buses equipped with our television systems is now over 21,000, increasing approximately by more than 1,000 buses since the end of November.”

Mr. Cheng continued, “Our successful platform, the large and growing network of bus operators partners, the wide geographic coverage and our competitive advertising rates, continue to attract a large number of international and national brands to our advertising network. More than 450 advertisers have purchased time on our network either through advertising agents or directly from us. Our growing clientele includes local brand names as well as well-known international and national brands such as Coca Cola, Pepsi, Wahaha, KFC, Siemens, Hitachi, Haier, China Telecom, China Mobile, Nokia, China Post, Procter & Gamble, Bank of China, China Constructing Bank and China Pacific Life Insurance.

“In addition, we plan to further broaden our revenue sources by providing additional advertising channels to our clients and new services to passengers. These additional revenue sources include: a) separately packaging advertising time slots on airport shuttle buses and tour buses which should generate higher revenue, b) displaying soft advertisements packaged as entertainment content, c) establishing stationary advertising media at inter-city express bus terminals to complement our main business, and d) offering new services to advertisers and passengers by featuring hotels, spa resorts, local restaurants on our network along with relevant contact information of service providers and charge advertising fees.

“We remain focused on improving our profit margins by attracting more direct advertising clients. As a result, at the end of 2009 direct clients accounted for 21% of our net revenues, as compared to only 2% at the end of 2008 and 16% at the end of the 2009 third quarter. Our goal is for direct advertising clients to represent approximately 35% our net revenue mix by the end of 2010.”

Jacky Lam, CME’s Chief Financial Officer stated, “In 2009, CME generated approximately $46.2 million of cash from operating activities, of which $16.4 million were generated in the fourth quarter. Our cash position remains very strong and as of December 31, 2009, we had $57.2 million of cash.”

Mr. Lam continued, “In January 2010, we completed two important transactions for our Company. The first transaction was a $30 million private investment from Starr International Company, Inc. (“Starr International”), involving newly issued shares of CME Series A Convertible Preferred Stock and CME common stock purchase warrants. We are very pleased that Starr International, a respected investment firm with a significant presence in China and the US, has shown great confidence in our growth prospects and has become one of our major investors.

“The second transaction was the completion of the exercise and redemption of all of our outstanding public warrants, which brought CME net proceeds (after deducting the amounts paid to the original shareholders of CME) of approximately $26 million. Through the redemption we simplified our complicated capital structure, increased the public float, and made CME more attractive to a larger number of institutional investors. In addition, we eliminated the warrant overhang, removed the associated downward pressure on our stock price and the trading volatility associated with arbitrage.”

Mr. Lam added, “As a result of the above two transactions and the settlement of $10 million promissory note due to the CME original shareholders, as of today, we have over $100 million in cash, to fund our business expansion plans, including internal expansion initiatives and potential mergers and acquisitions of local companies capable of delivering customized, time-specific and local-oriented content.”

Pursuant to the earn-out provisions of the share exchange agreement (“Share Exchange Agreement”) entered into in connection with the Company’s initial business combination with TM Entertainment and Media, CME anticipates issuing the original founding shareholders of the Company 1,000,000 common shares. This earn-out issuance is a result of the Company achieving its 2009 adjusted net income (as defined in the Share Exchange Agreement) of $42 million.

Announces 2010 Guidance

Based on the current customer base, geographic coverage, network of express buses and existing revenue streams, CME’s management projects that its 2010 net income (non-GAAP which is before share based compensation or fair value adjustments for the Company’s financial instruments), will be in the range of $71 million to $75 million. These projections exclude the impact of any possible acquisitions, additional of new buses and new investments in other media projects in 2010.”

Mr. Cheng concluded, “We believe that our Company is well positioned to further benefit from the rapid growth in the advertising spending in China, the second largest advertising market in Asia, and one of the largest and fastest growing markets in the world. We are very proud of our success and are confident that our Company has a bright future.”

Friday, March 19, 2010

I bought some CREG - Uplisting Monday

In CREG at $5.50 for a trade they are uplisting to Nasdaq Monday. The sector is very hot and it reminds me of RINO.

Target $7-$12 depending on momentum and volume.

Recycling Energy Corp. (OTCBB:CREG.OB;.ob - News) is based in Xi'an, China and provides environmentally friendly waste-to-energy technologies to recycle industrial byproducts for steel mills, cement factories and coke plants in China. Byproducts include heat, steam, pressure, and exhaust to generate large amounts of lower-cost electricity and reduce the need for outside electrical sources. The Chinese government has adopted policies to encourage the use of recycling technologies to optimize resource allocation and reduce pollution. Currently, recycled energy represents only an estimated 1% of total energy consumption and this renewable energy resource is viewed as a growth market due to intensified environmental concerns and rising energy costs as the Chinese economy continues to expand. The management and engineering teams have over 20 years of experience in industrial energy recovery in China.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

I am leaving

I will no longer be posting at website. I will post here on my blog and twitter and will be re-emerging at a new message board. Please feel free to contact me with questions.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Research Report out with $28 Target on CCME

Get Report

CCME Filing out - Net Income $41m for 2009 !

There is a filing out this morning where CCME said they will have net income of approximately $41m for 2009. This is great as it shows approximately 100% net income growth for Q4 year over year! The filing says approximately $41m so we will have to wait until the 23rd for the exact number. Additionally they may not be required to give 1m shares to management for earnout but that could be offset by shares that Starr may receive if they come in just under $42m making it a neutral event to EPS. CCME had no analyst targets to hit or miss, so this is a great number and should result in great headlines on March 23rd when they release the full earnings report. My previous blog post underlines why this stock is very undervalued and why analyst coverage should be coming in my opinion. There was uncertainty to what kind of numbers this Company would actually put up and this is now removed. There was uncertainty to what 2010 would look like and that was removed last week when the CFO said 50% organic growth and 50% acquisition growth. This filing is just for technical reasons because the report was due on the 15th of March and they are releasing it on the 23rd.

See Filing

Read previous Blog Post

Sunday, March 14, 2010

CCME Earnings Preview

CCME, a stock I have been in since I called it at $7.50 when the symbol was still TMI Read Blog Post, will report financial results for the fourth quarter and year- ended December 31, 2009, on Tuesday, March 23, 2010 before the stock market opens. Following is what I think the results may look like and is my opinion only based on facts that are available.

It is important to note that CCME does not have any analyst estimates to hit or miss right now. So that headline risk does not exist for them on March 23rd. They do however, need to show growth and have a bullish outlook on 2010. Then I believe the analyst coverage and upgrades will be follow.

Let's address both the growth and then potential for a bullish outlook.

Growth 2009 v.s. 2008:
The last earnings information was the Q3 report for the CCME business. Read Press Release Revenue and Net Income for the first 9 months of 2009 exceeded Revenue and Net Income for all of 2008.

Financial Highlights – Third Quarter 2009 vs. Third Quarter 2008

•Net revenues increased 65% to $26.1 million in the 2009 period compared to $15.8 million;
•Gross margin for the 2009 period was 67% of net revenues; •Operating income increased 83% to $15.5 million in 2009 compared to $8.5 million; and,
•Net income increased 83% to $11.7 million compared to $6.4 million.
Financial Highlights – Nine Months 2009 vs. Nine Months 2008

•Net revenues increased 38% to $64.0 million in the 2009 period compared to $46.2 million;
•Gross margin for the 2009 period was 64% of net revenues;
•Operating income increased 45% to $37.2 million in 2009 compared to $25.6 million;
•Net income increased 43% to $27.4 million compared to $19.2 million.

Now as far as Q4 2009, the Company has an internal target of $42m see SEC filing for which management has incentive to hit both because they will receive 1m shares if they hit it and they will be penalized if they miss it due to the recent financing deal they signed with Starr International. Read SEC filing on Starr deal

Since this Starr International deal was signed after 2009, I am going to make the assumption that CCME made more than 42M net income for 2009 and did not sign an agreement that they knew would penalize them because the net income target was already a miss. That would mean 14.5M+ net income in Q4. The net income comparison for Q4 2008 is 7.2m. see page 56 for 2008 results That would mean 100% year over year net income growth for Q4 2009 over Q4 2008!!! That would be a strong headline, whether they strongly beat the 42m target or even come close to it.

In the Q3 press release the CEO made this comment about Q4 --- Mr. Cheng concluded, “Historically, our fourth quarter is seasonally our best quarter. It appears that the 2009 fourth quarter will be no exception.”

And in a press release on Feb 8, 2010, the CFO said this about Q4 - Jacky Lam, CME’s Chief Financial Officer stated, “As anticipated, we believe our 2009 fourth quarter was exceptionally strong. Read press release

CCME had approximately 24m shares outstanding and approximately 10m warrants with a strike price of $5.50 at the end of 2009. Estimated fully diluted shares outstanding according to GAAP using the treasury method will be approximately 29m at the end of 2009. EPS for 2009 should be approximately $1.45 if they hit the 2009 $42m net income target. CCME was a SPAC and they acquired the CCME business in Q4 2009. Recently another SPAC reported earnings and used the GAAP treasury method to calculate EPS. Read Press Release (CCME has approximately 38.5m shares outstanding here in March 2010 so it would be approximately $1.09 EPS if you choose to look at it in a non-GAAP manner for comparison.)

Growth 2010 v.s. 2009:

The 2010 net income target for management is $83.5m. This would represent 99% growth over 2009 net income assuming they hit the 42m target. Management has strong incentive to hit this target as they would receive 7m shares!. The penalty on the Starr deal would be if they have less than 55m net income in 2010.

On March 8, 2010 (last week), the CFO said they expect to have 50% organic growth and then seek an additional 50% growth from acquisitions with their cash war chest of $100m. Listen to webcast at 22:40 into it Just last week the CFO said 50% organic growth in 2010 and another 50% growth from acquisitions. Does that sound like a Company about to warn for 2010??? No the outlook for 2010 was given at that conference and it was bullish 50-100% growth. CCME should have approximately 39.5m shares outstanding (assuming they hit the 42m net income). If they hit just the 50% organic growth that would be approximately $1.60 EPS for 2010. (42 X 1.5 / 39.5m). If they achieve the $83.5m net income target that would be approximately $2.11 EPS for 2010. (83.5 / 39.5)

Reasons why CCME deserves a high P/E multiple of 15 - 20 :

1) Growth - 100% YOY Net income growth 2009 over 2008 and potential to do 50-100% again in 2010 over 2009.

2) Barriers to entry - CCME has an exclusive license from China's Minestry of Transportation to install in-vehicle television systems on buses traveling on highways nationwide. (Page 12 of the March 9 presentation)

3) Extremely high Gross Profit and Net Income margins - 64% Gross Profit and 43% Net Income for first 9 months of 2009.

4) Strong cash flows - $30m cash flow generated from operations for first 9 months of 2009.

5) $100m of cash and no debt

CCME with only 50% organic growth in 2010 and EPS of $1.60 :

10 P/E would be $16 price per share (would be very low P/E for this type of growth - shown to illustrate that CCME is currently undervalued)

15 P/E would be $24 price per share
20 P/E would be $32 price per share

CCME with 100% targeted growth in 2010 and EPS of $2.11 :

10 P/E would be $21 price per share (would be very low P/E for this type of growth - shown to illustrate that CCME is currently undervalued)

15 P/E would be $31.65 price per share
20 P/E would be $42.20 price per share

Lastly, here is another Chinese Bus competitor (although they are more inner-city and not public in US) and this is how they are doing and what they said for 2010.
Read Press Release

Thursday, March 11, 2010

CCME Earnings on March 23rd

China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. to Announce 2009 Fourth Quarter Results and Conduct a Conference Call on Tuesday, March 23rdLast update: 3/11/2010 10:05:03 AMFUJIAN, China, Mar 11, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (CCME) ("CME" or "Company"), China's largest television advertising operator on inter-city express buses, today announced that it will issue its financial results for the fourth quarter and year- ended December 31, 2009, on Tuesday, March 23, 2010 before the stock market opens. CME's Founder & CEO, Zheng Cheng and CFO, Jacky Lam will host a conference call at 8:00 PM ET that day to discuss these results as well as recent corporate developments. The dial-in numbers are: (877) 241-7870 (US & Canada) (281) 312-0045 (International)

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Welcome to, blog home of Superman. Purpose of this blog is for me to discuss my trades and stock ideas (As well as opinions and rants on stock market related issues). I will mention the date and price I enter. As far as exits, I always try to take half off when I have some profit and if I believe in the stock, let the rest run further. I always also use mental stop limits, at which time I would exit and minimize any losses. I do not like to give price targets unless I can support them by P/E in some way or by comparison to another stock. I just post stock trades and ideas that I believe will go higher (or lower for shorts) and the reason I believe that. Individuals should have their own strategies for managing profits and losses. My stock picks tend to NOT be daytrades at all and many take time to move. I am not an investment advisor and this blog should not be considered or followed as investment advice.