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Friday, August 29, 2008

TAYD - super-trades winner

TAYD - A stock I have liked for a long time and originally bought in the low $5's hit $8.95 in after hours trading tonight. It has been a long wait but a nice winner. I look forward to finding the next one.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Chinese Stocks

Chinese stocks have been dead for the most part and so has the Chinese market. There has been some talk of slowing growth due to the rest of the world. However, that could change just as fast as our market could get bullish. Signs I would like to see before I think China momentum is back:

1) Shanghai market gets some sustained strength
2) China forecasts of strong continued growth
3) Some individual Chinese stocks making a big run

Right now the Chinese stocks that do pop have been fading. I have not been really going after them. SEED reported a quarter with $0.38 EPS and I was not blown away by the stocks reaction so far. All of that can change quickly and I am watching the situation. Additionally, a niche industry or technology could still become a big mover. HEK (Chinese bottled water) should close its acquisition soon and I look forward to seeing some numbers from them, as I believe water in China is a great story.

Defining Success

Success of stock ideas are not determined in a day or short term but over time. Success of stock trades are determined on how they are managed. My stocks tend to be volatile and sometimes can be big winners more than once but timing is key. Many of them take more time than patience dictates. I always like to take some profits when I am up and manage the rest of my shares accordingly, sometimes adding shares lower if I still believe in the story. But I am more successful at finding great stocks than I am at playing them to perfection all of the time. That is why discipline is key.

TAYD - I originally bought TAYD on 5/20/2008 at $5.39 and it hit $7.69 seven days later for a 43% gain. After that the overall market hit the tank and we did not hear anything from TAYD. The stock dipped all the way below $5 in the market onslaught. TAYD reported earnings last week and it now has an IBD EPS rating of 99. Today the stock hit a high of $7.43. Two trips of 40%+ gains.

NTIC (NTI) - I originally bought NTIC on 5/27/2008 at $8.75 and it hit $20.85 eight days later for a 138% gain. Again, after that the overall market hit the tank and we did not hear anything from NTIC. The stock dipped all the way back to $8.75 in the market onslaught. NTIC has since bounced as high as $13.50 and the next catalyst would need to be great news on the Waste Plastic to Oil Technology.

Even VIFL, which I bought 8/21/2008 at $2.10 and it hit $3.08 for a one day gain of 47%, wandered (was shorted perhaps) back down to the low $2's in subsequent days but today hit $2.80 again. The next catalyst here would be irradiation contracts or another food borne illness. The stock is already profitable and could easily be a big momentum play with more news.

I am on the search for some potential small cap winners to close out 2008.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Small Cap Momentum Update

Small Cap Momentum is harder to come by in this market but there has been some. The right news will still work but I have to be very selective. Naturally short selling strategies have been working better than momentum longs in this market. Plays like PDO do not happen every month but they do happen several times per year.

China stocks have been dead on arrival (with few exceptions). The Chinese market has been down and there has been talk of slower growth. I have been shying away from most of them until I see some solid momentum.

Bought VIFL at $2.10 and it hit $3.10 or 48% one day move. It has now settled 2.40-2.50 and was a good trade on the FDA decision.

Catalyst to watch for going forward on VIFL that would put it in play would be a contract on the lettuce and the spinach. The company is small but is profitable. It was a nice momentum mover (48% - one day).

OGXI made a nice move on Friday after it received FDA fast track approval on one of the Company's drugs. The reason this is one to have on watch list is that it only has approximately 2m shares outstanding (may go up after this milestone) and a float of 1.8m shares per Bloomberg. Float Information

IDSA made a move from $14 to $18 and UFPT from $9 to $11 since posting on their earnings.

TAYD reported earnings with a nice comment on international orders. This Company needs to keep the street updated on progress more than once per quarter. It is a solid business and will keep watch for demand picking up. I originally bought this in the $5's it hit high $7's then went back to low $5's. I still believed in it after the initial pop and time will tell the story here.

NTIC has bounced off the bottom in the low $9's and went back to the $11 area. Again, like TAYD this Company needs to keep the street informed on their green initiatives. I would like to see an update on the Waste Plastic to Oil Technology. I originally bought this in the $10 area and it doubled to $20 before settling all the way back to my original buy. I believed in it after the initial pop but like TAYD, I want to see some news.

The market environment was very different when I first bought TAYD and NTIC than it is now. These plays can still be big movers with the right news.

I have been doing well trading the ETF - SKF which is double short the Dow Financial Index. This is a very volatile stock that can have daily $5-$10 swings and moves very fast. It goes higher when financial sector news is bad. It is difficult to post trades because it moves so fast. I did buy some core shares at the $113 level on the last big dip. Will try to post more frequent thoughts on this ETF.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

New Buy VIFL

VIFL 2mill Float per Bloomberg. Did .05 EPS last quarter. In on FDA news today:

FDA allows food producers to zap spinach, lettuce with radiation to kill food-poisoning germsBy LAURAN NEERGAARD | AP Medical Writer
11:31 AM EDT, August 21, 2008
WASHINGTON (AP) _ The government will allow food producers to start zapping fresh spinach and iceberg lettuce with just enough radiation to kill E. coli and other dangerous germs, a key safety move amid increasing outbreaks from raw produce.

Irradiated meat has been around for years, particularly ground beef. But food companies long worried that zapping leafy greens with X-rays or other means of radiation would leave them limp.

The Food and Drug Administration has determined that modern irradiation techniques kill food-poisoning germs without compromising the safety or nutrient value of raw spinach and lettuce. Its new rule takes effect Friday.

From last Company PR:

Food Technology Service, Inc. CEO Dr. Richard Hunter said, “I am pleased with our growth in revenue and income during this year. Customer demand for medical sterilization continues to grow and there is increasing interest in food irradiation. The Company remains well-positioned to take advantage of that interest as food producers recognize the food-safety benefits of irradiation.”

Monday, August 11, 2008

CSY - Great Report

I bought CSY on June 10 at $14 and it hit over $17 in a day. I took some off at $16-$17 and then was stopped out on the rest. This low float stock was then manipulated under $10. Tonight CSY reported $0.50 EPS for the second quarter. Excellent report just like IDSA last week. China stocks have not been moving that well but few are putting up numbers like this. Should be interesting to watch. Read 10-Q

Monday, August 4, 2008

IDSA - Nice Report

Nice Report - Key will be how guidance is perceived. New investment is a very positive move.

Industrial Services of America, Inc. Reports Record Second Quarter 2008 Results
Monday August 4, 3:26 pm ET
-- Second quarter net income doubles to $1.7 million ($0.46 per share)
-- Non-ferrous shipment volumes up 67%; Ferrous up 32%
-- Company reports 21st consecutive profitable quarter

LOUISVILLE, Ky.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Industrial Services of America, Inc. (NASDAQ: IDSA), a company that buys, processes and markets recyclable commodities and offers programs and equipment to help businesses manage wastes, today reported higher revenues and earnings for the second quarter and six months ending June 30, 2008.

For the second quarter of fiscal 2008

* Total revenues increased 77% to $34.5 million, compared with $19.5 million in the similar 2007 period.
* Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $3.5 million, compared with EBITDA of $1.9 million for the 2007 quarter. (See attached reconciliation.)
* Net income grew 102 percent to $1,662,632 (basic and diluted earnings of $0.46 per share), a second quarter record. That compares with net income of $821,299 (basic and diluted earnings of $0.22 per share) in the second quarter of 2007. Basic and diluted shares outstanding were 3,596,368 in the second quarter of 2008 and 3,640,899 in 2007.

Source: Industrial Services of America, Inc.

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“ISA is benefiting not only from the higher price of commodities, but we are also successfully maximizing the utilization of current assets while we invest in expanding our processing and shipping capacities,” said Brian Donaghy, ISA President and Chief Operating Officer. “This is evident from our second quarter performance, as shipments were up 67% and 32% for non-ferrous and ferrous materials from the same period a year ago.”

Chairman and CEO Harry Kletter added, “Demand for commodities remains strong and these trends continue to benefit ISA and the recycling industry.”

Revenues from product sales increased 92 percent in the second quarter, while management services revenue increased 10 percent to $4.0 million. Higher second quarter 2008 selling, general and administrative expenses reflected the inclusion of operating costs associated with Industrial Logistics Services, which was acquired in August 2007, as well as higher fuel costs.

The Company took advantage of pricing and demand trends near the end of the quarter to ship additional product, allowing it to exceed its June 23 earnings projection of $0.42 to $0.44 per share for the quarter.

For the first six months of fiscal 2008

* Total revenues increased 62% to $60.6 million, compared with $37.4 million in the first half of 2007.
* Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $5.9 million, compared with EBITDA of $3.7 million for the 2007 period. (See attached reconciliation.)
* Net income increased 70 percent to $2,749,183 (basic and diluted earnings of $0.76 per share), compared with net income of $1,614,379 (basic and diluted earnings of $0.44 per share) in the first six months of 2007. Basic and diluted shares outstanding were 3,607,120 in 2008 and 3,640,899 in 2007.

For the first six months of 2008, product revenues rose 73% to $51.7 million, while service revenues increased 19% to $8.9 million. Ferrous shipments were 17 percent higher while non-ferrous shipments expanded by 58 percent.


“The Company’s performance during the first month of the third quarter has continued at roughly the same pace as the second quarter,” said Donaghy. “We see positive trends for commodities over the long-term, but demand and pricing can remain volatile, as we’ve witnessed.”

For the longer term, ISA is investing in a project that is expected to substantially increase its throughput capacity and expand its processing capabilities, Donaghy said.

“We are committed to improving our production methods and efficiencies as is evident in our recent ground breaking for a $10 million investment in a state-of-the-art shredding and non- ferrous recovery system,” he said. “This investment will allow us to increase production, provide lower production costs and open the door to many new markets. It is important to recognize the continuous commitment by our management and ISA employees toward achieving our goals.”

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Welcome to, blog home of Superman. Purpose of this blog is for me to discuss my trades and stock ideas (As well as opinions and rants on stock market related issues). I will mention the date and price I enter. As far as exits, I always try to take half off when I have some profit and if I believe in the stock, let the rest run further. I always also use mental stop limits, at which time I would exit and minimize any losses. I do not like to give price targets unless I can support them by P/E in some way or by comparison to another stock. I just post stock trades and ideas that I believe will go higher (or lower for shorts) and the reason I believe that. Individuals should have their own strategies for managing profits and losses. My stock picks tend to NOT be daytrades at all and many take time to move. I am not an investment advisor and this blog should not be considered or followed as investment advice.