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Sunday, December 28, 2008

LZR - Right Place , Right Time

Here is an article which explains why LZR has the right business model for the recession / credit crisis. Renting Laser and Surgical equipment to hospitals because they don't want to / can't buy them now.

Read Full Article

Hospitals ill from more bad debt, credit troubles
Saturday December 27, 9:31 pm ET
By Linda A. Johnson, AP Business Writer
Hospitals ailing from fewer paying patients, investment losses, tight credit and other ills

"They're having serious problems getting the capital they need for needed renovations and upgrading their facilities," said Mike Rock, a lobbyist at AHA, which is seeking increased federal reimbursements from Medicaid and Medicare.

At Exempla Healthcare, with three hospitals in Denver and its suburbs, Chief Executive Jeff Selberg said there's usually a 5-7 percent annual profit margin, but this year investment losses wiped that out. He's scaled back a $200 million plan to upgrade facilities, information technology and clinical equipment and may halt construction of a new maternity unit and operating rooms at one hospital.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

LZR - Next PDO type Momentum Play?

I called LZR on Tuesday, December 23 when the stock was $5.40. Read Blog Entry Three days later the stock hit $8.55 for a 58% gain in three days. This stock traded eerily like PDO (another big super-trades winner in earlier 2008) as it has now pulled back and certainly collected many shorts (as PDO did after the initial pop). While anything can happen and nothing is guaranteed (don't chase stocks and use stop losses), here is why LZR has the POTENTIAL to make a run to $15++ like PDO did after I called it in the $5 range also.

#1 reason is they have a business model that IS actually thriving in a recession / credit crisis! From the latest PR, ``In the near term,'' Haber added, ``we also expect a growing number of hospitals to shift their focus to equipment rental opportunities as they limit capital expenditures in this difficult economic environment.'' Read More Here

#2 They have the IBD (investors business daily) numbers to make the IBD 100 if the stock gets over $15 EPS98 RS 99

#3 Extremely Low Float 6.4m Shares O/S 1.6m Share Float 70% held by insiders

#4 LZR declared a $.30 dividend Read Here

LZR company provides laser and medical equipment rentals to hospitals.
Emergent Group Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiary, PRI Medical Technologies, Inc. (``PRI Medical''), provides mobile medical laser and surgical equipment in 16 states on a per-procedure basis to hospitals, outpatient surgery centers and physicians' offices. Surgical equipment is provided to customers along with technical support personnel to ensure that such equipment is operating correctly. PRI Medical currently offers its services in five states in the western United States and 11 states along the eastern seaboard. For product and other information, visit PRI Medical's website, http://www.primedical.net.

Emergent Group Inc. Reports Record Third Quarter Performance Highlighted by 72 Percent Rise in Net Income
* Revenue set a record, increasing 43% to $6.4 million versus
$4.5 million in the third quarter ended September 30, 2007.
* Net income rose 72% to a record $741,810 versus $430,448 in the
same period of 2007. Read More Here

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

LZR - Low Float with a business model that works in a credit crisis?

(Not a Daytrade). I am taking a starter position in LZR. Will keep powder dry in case we get a pullback. 1.6m float, IBD EPS 98, and the company provides laser and medical equipment rentals to hospitals. From the latest PR, ``In the near term,'' Haber added, ``we also expect a growing number of hospitals to shift their focus to equipment rental opportunities as they limit capital expenditures in this difficult economic environment.'' Read More Here

LZR - Emergent Group Inc 6.4m Shares O/S 1.6m Share Float Bloomberg IBD EPS 98 RS 99

Emergent Group Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiary, PRI Medical Technologies, Inc. (``PRI Medical''), provides mobile medical laser and surgical equipment in 16 states on a per-procedure basis to hospitals, outpatient surgery centers and physicians' offices. Surgical equipment is provided to customers along with technical support personnel to ensure that such equipment is operating correctly. PRI Medical currently offers its services in five states in the western United States and 11 states along the eastern seaboard. For product and other information, visit PRI Medical's website, http://www.primedical.net.

Emergent Group Inc. Reports Record Third Quarter Performance Highlighted by 72 Percent Rise in Net Income
* Revenue set a record, increasing 43% to $6.4 million versus
$4.5 million in the third quarter ended September 30, 2007.
* Net income rose 72% to a record $741,810 versus $430,448 in the
same period of 2007. Read More Here

Monday, December 15, 2008

Watch List - December 15 - Shipping Stocks

Shipping stocks are on watch for a long scalp as charter rates are rebounding. If DRYS moves then I will watch EXM and TBSI for long scalps. NAT is best of breed and SINO is a more speculative chinese play in this area.


Shipping charter rates soar - Financial Times

Financial Times reports one of the world's key shipping markets has begun to recover from a slump, with a revival in Chinese demand for iron ore and coal pushing some average charter prices up almost threefold in the past week. The revival in prices, after a disastrous six months for the industry in which charter rates fell nearly 99% for the largest vessels, could encourage shipowners to bring mothballed vessels back into service. One participant said 12/13 that some owners were able to charge enough to cover the costs of operating Capesize ships, the largest dry bulk carriers. Average rates for these ships, which move coal and iron ore, have nearly tripled over the past week. However, smaller ships have yet to show the same recovery as Capesize vessels. Average spot rates, or the cost of carrying a single cargo immediately, finished the week at $8,261 a day for Capesizes, according to figures from Pareto Dry Cargo, an Oslo shipbroker. The previous week's average was $2,763, one of the lowest yet seen. Pareto reported a long-term charter of a Capesize ship at $17,500 a day for a year, more than the daily basic operating costs of such a ship. Long-term charter rates are, unusually, higher than those in the spot market because of expectations that the spot market will recover.

Sunday, December 7, 2008

Watch List for Week of Dec 8th

1) GSH - China to invest $22 billion in railways Read Article China is in a railway-building boom, adding hundreds of miles (kilometers) of track each year in an expansion that rivals the construction of railroads in the 19th century American West. Ramping up construction can help create jobs at a time when the country's economic boom appears to be stalling, with growth expected to slow this year to about 9 percent, down from last year's 11.9 percent.

Guangshen Railway Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, primarily provides passenger and freight transportation services on the Shenzhen-Guangzhou-Pingshi railway in the People's Republic of China.

2) Infrastructure Stocks - "Although Mr. Obama put no price tag on his plan, he said he would invest record amounts of money in the vast infrastructure program, which also includes work on schools, sewer systems, mass transit, electrical grids, dams and other public utilities. The green jobs would include various categories, including jobs dedicated to creating alternative fuels, windmills and solar panels; building energy efficient appliances, or installing fuel-efficient heating or cooling systems."

Will expand list throughout the weekend

Infrastructure - STRL, MVCO (There is some buyout drama here so research it first), RMIX, RMX , MWA, GVA, VMC,

Smart Grid
- ELON, ENOC Also carbon trading - Read here, COMV

Efficient Lighting - CREE

Solar - FSLR, SPWRA, ASTI

Monday, December 1, 2008

REG short - super-trades winner

I highlighted REG as a short here Read Blog Entry, at $33. Today it closed in the $27's. Will be on the lookout for new shorts.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

REG - More Color on Downgrade

I shorted ESS, a REIT, at $92 on November 3, Read Blog Entry after Goldman Sachs downgraded it with a sell rating. It closed at $63.95 on November 19 for a 31% gain.

Shorting REITS have been profitable, but in a bear market you have to keep one foot out the door as bear market rallies can be fast and furious. Stocks like ESS and REG can shoot up $2-$3 in minutes. That being said, this morning Goldman Sachs downgraded REG, a commercial REIT to sell. If the markets and the commercial REIT sector continue to fall I expect REG to take a fall from the $33 range where it is now. It is important to note that the REIT sector has had whipsaw action this week , with several end of day short squeezes. However, if this sector continues on a weakened path, REG is a great candidate to fall. The ETF with the symbol SRS, is a great way to guage the action in the REIT sector. SRS goes up when REITS are weak and drops when they are strong. Components of SRS

Read the Article here

"As long as the credit markets remain tight, several REITs may be forced to sell assets at sharply reduced pricing, cut their dividends as many have already, and issue new common shares to de-leverage," Habermann wrote.

Habermann added Regency Centers Corp. to his "Conviction Sell" list and downgraded the REIT to "Sell" from "Neutral," citing concerns over near-term debt maturities and a concentration in weak commercial real estate markets.

Shopping malls are running on empty

Regency Centers Cut To Sell From Neutral By Goldman
11/25/2008 6:36:45 AM

Article on the industry in the LA Times:

Business is so bad that an increasing number of retailers are calling it quits -- without waiting to see whether money can be made as the Christmas season gets underway.

The department-store chain Mervyns closed in October -- at about the same time Linens 'n Things Inc. and Shoe Pavilion Inc. launched going-out-of-business sales. This month, Circuit City Stores Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection just days after announcing it would close 155 underperforming electronics stores and seek lower rents at others.

Read Article

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

ESS short a super-trades winner

Shorted ESS at $92 this Monday , November 3 See Blog Entry Here, it closed at $63.95 on Nov 19.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Shorted ESS at $92

Shorted ESS at $92 on this note from GS - ESS Essex Property downgraded to sell from neutral at Goldman Sachs (97.30) 6-month price target decreased to $59 from $65. The stock is also added to the Conviction Sell List.

Monday, October 13, 2008

KO super-trades winner

KO now at $47 from the pre-market long alert $43......I took half off at $44 will manage the rest accordingly

KO should rebound nicely if market can bounce

If the market rebound is for real, KO should have a nice rebound from the close in the $41's on friday. Three days ago it was trading at $50.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Maybe I mark the bottom

With all the recent market chaos, small caps have been completely out of favor. In fact, being long anything for more than an hour has been out of favor. The rules changed drastically from the first half of 2008 where I scored on some huge small cap wins (see top and bottom of right hand corner of blog for results). The second half of 2008 brought on an accelerated financial crisis as we now know all too well. Had to clear out the small caps and protect profits (TAYD NTIC VIFL and the rest) and in some cases get stopped out of the rest. TAYD and NTIC were 50-100% gainers, retraced and then had decent pops off lows. I was able to profit several times. VIFL was a stop out as the market tanked shortly after that buy. When the market psychology changes as drastic as it did, I cant hold on to mindsets that worked in times that were much more bullish.

That being said, I have had great success shorting financial stocks before the ban. It did not always feel right having successful trades while the entire financial system was breaking down. However, super-trades alerted 2 blog posts with nice short winners MER short call at $27 hit $17 within a week and LM short at $46 hit $40 within a week MER & LEH blog post. Also GGP was a super short from $21 to a low of $13's within days GGP blog post (most of the other mall REITS's from that blog post fell as well).

Then as you know, the SEC banned the short selling of approximately 800 financial stocks. The easy money shorting financials was taken away. Spreads on put options have been insane, making it more challenging to play the options, especially with the market down 300-400 one day and up the same the next. However, some REIT's and many homebuilders are not on the no-short list (yet). So when there is absolute horrific market news, I have been short scalping stocks like VNO, KIM, SPG (REITS), RYL, TOL , KBH (homebuilders). After the market has been crushed and it is obvious that a relief rally is in store, JPM, BAC, WFC, USB, (the super-banks) are usually steady long scalps.

The SEC is looking at making changes to FASB 157 (Mark to market rules), the FDIC is looking to raise the insurance on bank accounts, and we may see some form of bailout/rescue package. There are many schools of thought on what will happen with these moves. One thing I believe, is that these moves are the big 3 bullets (maybe the uptick rule would be a 4th for shock value).

Many of my trades lately have been fast scalps minutes or an hour at the most. I will continue to post blog ideas when I think there is some time for them to play out (Like the short calls on MER , LM , and GGP). Maybe the fact the I am mostly posting on short sells (when I am known for longs on small caps) will be the glaring sign that marks the bottom. That being said, capital preservation is key in these times and I wont make too big a trade on anything for long with this volatility.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Shopping Mall Glut

If financials keep getting hit, shopping mall REIT's may come in to focus as shorts. A building glut and tapped out consumer, combined with depressed prices in the commercial real estate market hurt further by LEH and others dumping assets.

GGP,REG,KIM,WRI,SPG,FRT are a few

Mall Glut to Clog Market for Years
Scarce Shoppers,
Lack of Tenants
Ding Developers
By KRIS HUDSON and ANN ZIMMERMAN

Shopping-mall owners have struggled this year with a darkening economy, slowing consumer spending and store closings by retailers. But they face another problem that may persist long after the economy bounces back: a decade of overbuilding.

Developers have built one billion square feet of retail space in the 54 largest U.S. markets since the start of 2000, 25% more than what they built during the same period of the 1990s, according to Property & Portfolio Research Inc. of Boston. U.S. retail space now amounts to 38 square feet for every person in those 54 markets, up from 29 square feet in 1983, the firm says. Read More Here

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

AIG - Don't Worry (Famous Last Words)



Wonder how worried "buddy" is now.

MER was a $10 point short winner and LM a $7 point winner from this post MER LM Blog Post

I have been short scalping financials - has been the easy money.

Stay tuned for more trades in this insane market.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Couple of Downgrades of Interest

Two stocks that could be going lower if market/financials going to tank big again.

MER - Goldman Sachs downgrade of MER (26.21 ) -Update : As mentioned at 6:35, Merrill Lynch was downgraded by Goldman Sachs to Sell. The analyst thinks that the co will likely incur fresh write-downs, in addition to those assumed after its recent sale of repackaged debt to Lone Star Funds. Analyst William Tanona also widened his third-quarter loss forecast for the world's largest brokerage, while adding the stock to his Americas conviction sell list. Tanona said Merrill's stock currently trades at the highest price to book multiple in his large-cap brokerage universe, despite having some of the most significant exposures to troubled assets like collateralized debt obligations, mortgages and leveraged loans. "We expect Merrill's multiple to compress over the coming weeks and months, as third-quarter earnings will mark the fifth consecutive quarterly loss for the company, and its prospects for fourth quarter of 2008 are not promising enough to warrant this level of a premium to book value," he wrote in a note dated September 4 to clients. Tanona widened his third-quarter loss forecast for Merrill to $5.75 a share from $4.75, citing expectations of higher gross write-downs, and higher compensation expense. He also widened his 2008 loss estimate to $11.55 a share from $10.25. The analyst cut his six-month price target on the stock to $22 from $28.50.

LM - Legg Mason: Downgrade details (47.37 ) : As mentioned at 6:58, Credit Suisse downgraded LM to Underperform from Neutral Following the restructuring of some of the large structured investment vehicles (SIVs) and a rebound in the LM share price. Firm says the stock's positives (attractive valuation, operating margin opportunity, potential for M&A) are offset a number of risks. Furthermore, firm adds that over the next year, they expect that LM will (1) miss EPS ests (or face negative revisions) and (2) experience the highest level of net redemptions as a percentage of AuM among the public managers.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Why I think VIFL should Double or More Over Time

When I first bought TAYD and expressed my belief in the Company, I heard from many all the reasons (some valid and some ridiculous) why TAYD will never move.

1) The Company is small
2) The Company is a piece of garbage
3) The stock never moves
4) The volume is low
5) The Company is too quiet

and many more. Well afterhours on Friday TAYD hit $8.95 from my original entry in the low $5's. It did take some time as it initially moved to the $7's when I bought it and then back to the low $5's before this move to the $8's. The point is that my research was correct in my opinion and all it took was some vision to see the Company and circumstances for what they were. (Increased earthquakes will bring demand and attention, low float with a niche business, strong case for momentum etc.)

I believe I have found another stock like TAYD at the ground floor (but like TAYD, this is a BUY AND HOLD for me and NOT A DAYTRADE):

VIFL 2.8m Shares outstanding and 2m Float per Bloomberg

Company Website

VIFL is a small (13 Employees and record first half 2008 revenues of $1.2m) yet profitable ($0.05 EPS for Q2 and $0.08 EPS for first half 2008). Read More Here

1) The Company well positioned to profit on food and medical device irradiation.

Food Technology Service, Inc. CEO Dr. Richard Hunter said, “I am pleased with our growth in revenue and income during this year. Customer demand for medical sterilization continues to grow and there is increasing interest in food irradiation. The Company remains well-positioned to take advantage of that interest as food producers recognize the food-safety benefits of irradiation.” Read More here

2) The FDA recently approved lettuce and spinach for irradiation and some large producers are considering it Read More Here

The industry group wouldn’t name salad suppliers ready to start irradiating. But it expects niche marketing to trickle out first - bags of spinach and lettuce targeted to high-risk populations such as people with weak immune systems “who right now may be afraid to eat uncooked produce,” said GMA’s chief science officer Robert Brackett.


“It’s one big step forward in improving the safety of fresh produce,” he added.

California-based produce giant Dole Food Company confirmed it is considering irradiated lettuce. “We are currently doing extensive testing with irradiation and it looks to be very promising,” said spokesman William Goldfield.

3) VIFL is one of a handful of facilities that are approved for food irradiation and is considered a leader in the field

"But most U.S. irradiation facilities treat medical products, and only a handful are set up for food."

"You'll see gradual adoption and early adopters … who convince others to try," says Richard Hunter, CEO of Food Technology Service, a 13-employee food-irradiation company in Florida that's considered a food-irradiation leader but which relies on medical devices for 70% of its revenue.

Read More Here

4) VIFL has been expanding capacity and expected growth before the new FDA approval for lettuce and spinach

As previously mentioned, the Company installed additional Cobalt during the second quarter at a cost of approximately $530,000. The Company paid cash for this Cobalt. Management anticipates increased revenue during the remaining quarters of 2008 based on growing demand for irradiation services. Read More Here

Summary : The possibility exists that in the future the FDA will expand this initiative to other vegetables and ready to eat foods. However, keep in mind that food irradiation is an intensely debated subject and widespread rapid adoption is unlikely. Also, some customers may not want to advertise their use of irradiation. The challenge with all small caps is whether or not the management is ready to get a facts based story to the street to enhance shareholder value or play the small meek Company that only releases earnings and doesn't keep the street updated on contract wins and other good news.

That being said, with the small share structure of VIFL and the already profitable existing business, it would not take much for this Company to throw off some growth and strong EPS. Food borne illness outbreaks as well as contract announcements could bring strong momentum to low float VIFL. With the Company doing $0.05 EPS last quarter and growth forecasted, they could easily be on a $0.25+ EPS run rate if that growth comes to fruition along with some new spinach and lettuce contracts. I believe the stock should be valued at $5 based on current EPS ($0.05 EPS last quarter X 4 = $0.20 EPS plus growth = $0.25+ EPS with a 20 P/E as the Company is a low float with a unique niche. At any rate it is undervalued here in the $2's. Depending on circumstances playing out (contracts, outbreaks), it is my opinion that VIFL could become a strong momentum play in the future that could take it even higher.

That is why I am in VIFL. This is all in my opinion and not investment advice, please see the disclaimer at the bottom of the blog.

Friday, August 29, 2008

TAYD - super-trades winner

TAYD - A stock I have liked for a long time and originally bought in the low $5's hit $8.95 in after hours trading tonight. It has been a long wait but a nice winner. I look forward to finding the next one.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Chinese Stocks

Chinese stocks have been dead for the most part and so has the Chinese market. There has been some talk of slowing growth due to the rest of the world. However, that could change just as fast as our market could get bullish. Signs I would like to see before I think China momentum is back:

1) Shanghai market gets some sustained strength
2) China forecasts of strong continued growth
3) Some individual Chinese stocks making a big run

Right now the Chinese stocks that do pop have been fading. I have not been really going after them. SEED reported a quarter with $0.38 EPS and I was not blown away by the stocks reaction so far. All of that can change quickly and I am watching the situation. Additionally, a niche industry or technology could still become a big mover. HEK (Chinese bottled water) should close its acquisition soon and I look forward to seeing some numbers from them, as I believe water in China is a great story.

Defining Success

Success of stock ideas are not determined in a day or short term but over time. Success of stock trades are determined on how they are managed. My stocks tend to be volatile and sometimes can be big winners more than once but timing is key. Many of them take more time than patience dictates. I always like to take some profits when I am up and manage the rest of my shares accordingly, sometimes adding shares lower if I still believe in the story. But I am more successful at finding great stocks than I am at playing them to perfection all of the time. That is why discipline is key.

TAYD - I originally bought TAYD on 5/20/2008 at $5.39 and it hit $7.69 seven days later for a 43% gain. After that the overall market hit the tank and we did not hear anything from TAYD. The stock dipped all the way below $5 in the market onslaught. TAYD reported earnings last week and it now has an IBD EPS rating of 99. Today the stock hit a high of $7.43. Two trips of 40%+ gains.

NTIC (NTI) - I originally bought NTIC on 5/27/2008 at $8.75 and it hit $20.85 eight days later for a 138% gain. Again, after that the overall market hit the tank and we did not hear anything from NTIC. The stock dipped all the way back to $8.75 in the market onslaught. NTIC has since bounced as high as $13.50 and the next catalyst would need to be great news on the Waste Plastic to Oil Technology.

Even VIFL, which I bought 8/21/2008 at $2.10 and it hit $3.08 for a one day gain of 47%, wandered (was shorted perhaps) back down to the low $2's in subsequent days but today hit $2.80 again. The next catalyst here would be irradiation contracts or another food borne illness. The stock is already profitable and could easily be a big momentum play with more news.

I am on the search for some potential small cap winners to close out 2008.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Small Cap Momentum Update

Small Cap Momentum is harder to come by in this market but there has been some. The right news will still work but I have to be very selective. Naturally short selling strategies have been working better than momentum longs in this market. Plays like PDO do not happen every month but they do happen several times per year.

China stocks have been dead on arrival (with few exceptions). The Chinese market has been down and there has been talk of slower growth. I have been shying away from most of them until I see some solid momentum.

Bought VIFL at $2.10 and it hit $3.10 or 48% one day move. It has now settled 2.40-2.50 and was a good trade on the FDA decision.

Catalyst to watch for going forward on VIFL that would put it in play would be a contract on the lettuce and the spinach. The company is small but is profitable. It was a nice momentum mover (48% - one day).

OGXI made a nice move on Friday after it received FDA fast track approval on one of the Company's drugs. The reason this is one to have on watch list is that it only has approximately 2m shares outstanding (may go up after this milestone) and a float of 1.8m shares per Bloomberg. Float Information

IDSA made a move from $14 to $18 and UFPT from $9 to $11 since posting on their earnings.

TAYD reported earnings with a nice comment on international orders. This Company needs to keep the street updated on progress more than once per quarter. It is a solid business and will keep watch for demand picking up. I originally bought this in the $5's it hit high $7's then went back to low $5's. I still believed in it after the initial pop and time will tell the story here.

NTIC has bounced off the bottom in the low $9's and went back to the $11 area. Again, like TAYD this Company needs to keep the street informed on their green initiatives. I would like to see an update on the Waste Plastic to Oil Technology. I originally bought this in the $10 area and it doubled to $20 before settling all the way back to my original buy. I believed in it after the initial pop but like TAYD, I want to see some news.

The market environment was very different when I first bought TAYD and NTIC than it is now. These plays can still be big movers with the right news.

I have been doing well trading the ETF - SKF which is double short the Dow Financial Index. This is a very volatile stock that can have daily $5-$10 swings and moves very fast. It goes higher when financial sector news is bad. It is difficult to post trades because it moves so fast. I did buy some core shares at the $113 level on the last big dip. Will try to post more frequent thoughts on this ETF.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

New Buy VIFL

VIFL 2mill Float per Bloomberg. Did .05 EPS last quarter. In on FDA news today:

FDA allows food producers to zap spinach, lettuce with radiation to kill food-poisoning germsBy LAURAN NEERGAARD | AP Medical Writer
11:31 AM EDT, August 21, 2008
WASHINGTON (AP) _ The government will allow food producers to start zapping fresh spinach and iceberg lettuce with just enough radiation to kill E. coli and other dangerous germs, a key safety move amid increasing outbreaks from raw produce.

Irradiated meat has been around for years, particularly ground beef. But food companies long worried that zapping leafy greens with X-rays or other means of radiation would leave them limp.

The Food and Drug Administration has determined that modern irradiation techniques kill food-poisoning germs without compromising the safety or nutrient value of raw spinach and lettuce. Its new rule takes effect Friday.



From last Company PR:

Food Technology Service, Inc. CEO Dr. Richard Hunter said, “I am pleased with our growth in revenue and income during this year. Customer demand for medical sterilization continues to grow and there is increasing interest in food irradiation. The Company remains well-positioned to take advantage of that interest as food producers recognize the food-safety benefits of irradiation.”

Monday, August 11, 2008

CSY - Great Report

I bought CSY on June 10 at $14 and it hit over $17 in a day. I took some off at $16-$17 and then was stopped out on the rest. This low float stock was then manipulated under $10. Tonight CSY reported $0.50 EPS for the second quarter. Excellent report just like IDSA last week. China stocks have not been moving that well but few are putting up numbers like this. Should be interesting to watch. Read 10-Q

Monday, August 4, 2008

IDSA - Nice Report

Nice Report - Key will be how guidance is perceived. New investment is a very positive move.

Industrial Services of America, Inc. Reports Record Second Quarter 2008 Results
Monday August 4, 3:26 pm ET
-- Second quarter net income doubles to $1.7 million ($0.46 per share)
-- Non-ferrous shipment volumes up 67%; Ferrous up 32%
-- Company reports 21st consecutive profitable quarter

LOUISVILLE, Ky.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Industrial Services of America, Inc. (NASDAQ: IDSA), a company that buys, processes and markets recyclable commodities and offers programs and equipment to help businesses manage wastes, today reported higher revenues and earnings for the second quarter and six months ending June 30, 2008.

For the second quarter of fiscal 2008

* Total revenues increased 77% to $34.5 million, compared with $19.5 million in the similar 2007 period.
* Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $3.5 million, compared with EBITDA of $1.9 million for the 2007 quarter. (See attached reconciliation.)
* Net income grew 102 percent to $1,662,632 (basic and diluted earnings of $0.46 per share), a second quarter record. That compares with net income of $821,299 (basic and diluted earnings of $0.22 per share) in the second quarter of 2007. Basic and diluted shares outstanding were 3,596,368 in the second quarter of 2008 and 3,640,899 in 2007.

Source: Industrial Services of America, Inc.

· View Multimedia Gallery


“ISA is benefiting not only from the higher price of commodities, but we are also successfully maximizing the utilization of current assets while we invest in expanding our processing and shipping capacities,” said Brian Donaghy, ISA President and Chief Operating Officer. “This is evident from our second quarter performance, as shipments were up 67% and 32% for non-ferrous and ferrous materials from the same period a year ago.”

Chairman and CEO Harry Kletter added, “Demand for commodities remains strong and these trends continue to benefit ISA and the recycling industry.”

Revenues from product sales increased 92 percent in the second quarter, while management services revenue increased 10 percent to $4.0 million. Higher second quarter 2008 selling, general and administrative expenses reflected the inclusion of operating costs associated with Industrial Logistics Services, which was acquired in August 2007, as well as higher fuel costs.

The Company took advantage of pricing and demand trends near the end of the quarter to ship additional product, allowing it to exceed its June 23 earnings projection of $0.42 to $0.44 per share for the quarter.

For the first six months of fiscal 2008

* Total revenues increased 62% to $60.6 million, compared with $37.4 million in the first half of 2007.
* Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $5.9 million, compared with EBITDA of $3.7 million for the 2007 period. (See attached reconciliation.)
* Net income increased 70 percent to $2,749,183 (basic and diluted earnings of $0.76 per share), compared with net income of $1,614,379 (basic and diluted earnings of $0.44 per share) in the first six months of 2007. Basic and diluted shares outstanding were 3,607,120 in 2008 and 3,640,899 in 2007.

For the first six months of 2008, product revenues rose 73% to $51.7 million, while service revenues increased 19% to $8.9 million. Ferrous shipments were 17 percent higher while non-ferrous shipments expanded by 58 percent.

Outlook

“The Company’s performance during the first month of the third quarter has continued at roughly the same pace as the second quarter,” said Donaghy. “We see positive trends for commodities over the long-term, but demand and pricing can remain volatile, as we’ve witnessed.”

For the longer term, ISA is investing in a project that is expected to substantially increase its throughput capacity and expand its processing capabilities, Donaghy said.

“We are committed to improving our production methods and efficiencies as is evident in our recent ground breaking for a $10 million investment in a state-of-the-art shredding and non- ferrous recovery system,” he said. “This investment will allow us to increase production, provide lower production costs and open the door to many new markets. It is important to recognize the continuous commitment by our management and ISA employees toward achieving our goals.”

Read More Here

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Do You Still Belive in Momentum Stocks?

It is funny for me to read at all the heated PDO posts now that argue about it being a long or short. I pounded the table on PDO from $5-$7 (and few wanted to hear about it because it did not move fast) and from that point it hit $46. Insane but fun and financially rewarding. Now people argue about it left and right to my amusement. It just goes to show you that a stock can become a momentum stock when you least expect it and at that it can defy logical arguments for a long time. All you need is the perfect storm and it happens at least 4 unique times per year and sometimes much more by my calculations through the years. I have been quiet so what have I been doing? I have been short scalping financials and playing the SKF like everyone else (Yawn - but steady trades and I hate posting daytrades becasue I like the flexibility to change my mind quickly unlike swing/story stocks for my blog). Yes, scalping is great but lacks the excitement of a PDO APWR EFUT etc., so I am always looking for the next perfect storm and I think we are due for one.

Do you still believe in momentum stocks? I still believe that in the deepest darkest moments of the market, there can still be a momentum stock, if the story makes sense. What kind of press release / story would be an example? In my opinion:

TAYD - earthquake prevention products - low float
NTIC - Plastic Waste to oil Technology in Asia roll out (soon imo) - Bioplastics rollout (board member is a leading expert with his own patents from Michigan State)
ERII - Reduces energy consumption in the procss that converts sea water to drinking water
HEK - Chinese bottled water company
AETI - servicing the Texas wind energy market and oil/gas market
HDSN - government regulation going to drive earnings here

there are many other potentials - all you need is the right story and press release

Even CLWT - if they could put out the right contract on China pollution......it could be THE olympics stock play

There will always be momentum stocks,,,,,the story just needs to be at the right place and right time!

What are your candidates?

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

L.A Bag Ban - Bioplastic Stocks are the Future

Bioplastics and Plastic Waste to Oil Technology - NTIC and MBLX
Great for environment and reduce/produces oil

Los Angeles bans plastic bagging in stores

12 hours ago

LOS ANGELES (AFP) — The city of Los Angeles announced it will ban all plastic bags from retail stores as of July 1, 2010, following similar anti-pollution regulations already enforced in San Francisco.

The second-largest US city behind New York, Los Angeles, with its four million population, will ban plastic bagging in all supermarkets, grocery and retail stores, the Los Angeles City Council said in its new regulation.

After July 1, 2010, all store customers must provide their own bags or purchase bags made of paper or other biogradable material from the store for 25 cents (0.25 dollar), it added.

The goal is to rid the city of some 2.3 billion non-biodegradable plastic bags that are distributed each year and end up polluting waste dumps for a long time.

San Francisco, 600 kilometers (373 miles) north of here, also in California, in 2007 became the first US city to ban plastic bags from its stores.

Both city regulations are intended to pressure state lawmakers who are considering a bill to eliminate plastic bags across the state by 2012.

Several countries around the world have already adopted laws banning plastic bags, which often end up killing animals that swallow or get caught up in them.

Saturday, July 12, 2008

5 Thoughts on Saturday

1) What An Absolutely Insane Week

FNM FRE on the ropes with great drama - Oil surges again Friday afternoon - IMB shut down Friday night

These are amazing times we are witnessing. My guess is that because this Friday is options expiration that we could see a decent bounce at some point this next week to take out some put holders (Barring new devastating financial/oil news). There is plenty of short fuel right now.

2) Check Your Attitude At The Door

In this environment (market tanking), most stock have pulled back quite a bit. Many of my stocks have. So no one is a genius for shorting or saying "what happened to this stock Superman" during this time. Similarly, when the market is a raging bull there is no need to boast too loudly when momentum is in my or any longs favor. Everyone will eat the humble pie at some point or another. It is better not to boast too loudly or bash others when they are down because we will all be humbled at one point or another. In the past i was extremely arrogant and boastful and i see how that turned people off. As a result, I have tried to change because i am far from perfect and at best i pick some decent stocks but i don't always play them correctly.

3) Have To Continue To Be Very Selective On Longs


However, APWR proved my point this week. That point being, if you can find companies with products in demand during these times they can still do well. APWR announced the completion of the largest wind turbine facility in china and the stock moved approximately $6 higher last week. Read More Here

That is why any of these stock could take off in this market with similar news:

TAYD - earthquake protection devices
NTIC - Plastic Waste to Oil tech launch, Bioplastics
HEK - China bottled water
MBLX - Bioplastics
AETI - Texas wind power service company
ERII - water desalination products

the point being have to be selective in this market but there will still be momentum


4) Accounting Lesson - Learning To Dig Deeper

NTIC earnings and sales were great. Here is the why - NTIC makes most of their money from international joint ventures that touch 50 countries. These joint ventures are accounted for by the equity method, which is a GAAP measure to account for joint ventures with this level of control. When you look at the income statement this income shows up as income from joint ventures and holding companies (below North American operating gain/loss) you can see it was $1.2m this quarter vs $760k last quarter (approximately 58% growth). When you look further, the sales from these international ventures were up big - NTIC's international business continues to significantly expand as total net sales of all of NTIC's joint ventures increased 34.8 percent to $79,893,753 during the nine months ended May 31, 2008 compared to $59,265,028 during the nine months ended May 31, 2007. NTIC's income from its corporate joint ventures and holding companies increased 87.1 percent to $3,880,352 for the nine months ended May 31, 2008 compared to $2,073,994 for the nine months ended May 31, 2007. Read More Here

Now you ask what about the top line of the income statement? The sales and North American operating loss is from the North American (smaller) part of the company's overall biz. They announced last year that a North American customer phased out and that would make North American sales comps off for 2008 but that customer did not add much to the bottom line anyway.

In closing, you have to look at the joint venture income because that is what drives growth. Now they are going to push the Bioplastics and Plastic waste to oil technology to these international ventures soon and that is going to add to the current approximately $0.80 EPS for the core corrosion biz. In my opinion, the company should easily do $1.25-$2 EPS with these new technologies kicking in to net income. For an $11 low float company with decent amount of shorts and about to roll out a hot sexy technology it looks to be a great set up.

5) A Decent Bank?

USB - Not a buy recommendation by any means but interesting find that many say that US Bank has the least exposure and is better capitalized than it's peers.

Of the diversified banks, which include Comerica Inc., U.S. Bancorp, Wachovia Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co., U.S. Bancorp is the only bank in the subindustry with a "Buy" rating.

"We believe this bank is the best capitalized and most conservative lender in our coverage universe," Plesser said. Read More Here

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

NTIC - Super Core Results

NTIC reported super core results this morning. The core business is experiencing amazing growth. This Company has many international joint ventures that are accounted for with the equity method so you look at total international venture growth.

NTIC's international business continues to significantly expand as total net sales of all of NTIC's joint ventures increased 34.8 percent to $79,893,753 during the nine months ended May 31, 2008 compared to $59,265,028 during the nine months ended May 31, 2007. NTIC's income from its corporate joint ventures and holding companies increased 87.1 percent to $3,880,352 for the nine months ended May 31, 2008 compared to $2,073,994 for the nine months ended May 31, 2007.

NTIC had .21 EPS and is on an approximate $0.80 EPS run rate on the core business alone. The Plastic Waste to Oil Technology (which I hope will launch very soon as well as the bioplastics division (which I expect will be sold to all international joint ventures and I expect to get major traction going forward) are only going to add to this $0.80 EPS. That is why when they launch the Plastic Waste to Oil technology I expect this to be one of the most exciting stocks of 2008.

Earnings Release

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Back From Vacation - My Top Stocks for the Second Half of 2008

I am back from vacation. What I did learn is that Vegas seems to be hit hard by the economy. Everyone I talked to there said the same thing. It has been much slower due to the economy. It was easy to see. Need to research some Vegas stocks that may have more downside for potential shorts.

The first half of 2008 was an amazing time for me. As most know, I researched and pounded the table on PDO when it was $5-$7. My first buy was $4.47 and the stock ended up gaining 929% from that point to peak at $46. Other strong gainers I researched and selected included SINO 142% NTI 138% GBR 96% and CKX 65% (Gain percentage was measured from my first buy to the stocks peak thereafter. I always take some profit when I am up and use mental stops on the rest if I still believe the stocks will go higher. As you can see I am not a daytrader, but look for quality stocks that can make strong moves in time.

The market as we all know, has been in the tank. Oil is rising, the dollar is weakening, the credit crisis continues, and hopes for a second half economic rebound is on the ropes.

China stocks have also been in the tank, EPS or not.

However, I believe, In every market, there are always certain stocks and sectors that will still do well. It is a matter of being very selective with long positions. The industries must be in demand, even in a slowdown.

My top 3 stocks for the second half of 2008, in my opinion, meet this criteria:

TAYD - Company is a global leader in providing earthquake protection for buildings, bridges, schools, and other structures. This is a $6 stock and it did $0.12 EPS last quarter. I believe this stock is a gem and undervalued based on last quarters EPS alone. As earnings approach, I believe we will see continued strength in EPS and future demand in this business making it a big mover in the next 1 to 12 months. This reminds me of the stock BOOM, which was an obscure stock at a similar price until industry demand put it on the map and the stock moved to over $50 on that demand and EPS. I additionally believe TAYD could be a buyout target for a larger Company wanting to get into this field.

NTIC - Formerly NTI, now trading on the NASDAQ as NTIC. This Company has a very solid core business that provides corrosion protection with a big market reach outside of the United States. They are in the process of expanding this business into the oil and gas sector. As earnings approach, I believe this report will mainly feature this results from this core business, which has had a very respectable EPS run rate of $0.70-$0.80. I am expecting EPS in the $0.15-$0.20 range (my guess only).
That being said, I think NTIC will be the most in demand alternative energy company in second half 2008 and beyond due to two other factors. They have a biodegradable plastic that is already available for sale as well as an exciting Plastic Waste to Oil technology that they have recently placed in India and Thailand. According to SEC filings they have plans to sell the first unit in fiscal 2008 and intends to ramp up its manufacturing and service infrastructure to capitalize on global market opportunities it believes exists for the Plastic Waste to Oil solution. I believe these factors give NTIC the potential to move like the solar , wind, and other hot alternative energy stocks did and with the low float structure the sky is the limit here. When the Company rolls out this technology and announces sales I believe this has the potential to be a $30-$50 stock. Watch Video (Takes a Minute To Load)

HEK - This SPAC purchased a leading Chinese bottled water company and when the deal closes in the fall and we see some reports, I think this stock is a potential double or more. The rising Chinese middle class should be big buyers of bottled water in a country where clean water is scarce.

Other stocks that I believe have big potential in the second half of 2008 include:

MBLX - A leader in bioplastics, plant to open in 2009. Partner is ADM
HDSN - Earnings should be stellar this quarter and beyond due to a huge demand in their refrigeration business. More research to come
AETI - Serves the oil, gas, and wind energy business
GBR - 520k Float - waiting for them to buy something in the oil/gas field
TVOC.OB - I expect blowout earnings this quarter due to higher oil/gas prices
ERII - Recent water IPO , watching for a dip

I will continue to provide my personal research on all of these companies and any new ones I find.

Again, this blog contains my personal thoughts and research for my own investing and is not investment advice. Please see the disclaimer at the bottom of this blog.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Vacation This Week

I am on vacation this week but will still be checking in and maybe writing a blog or two. Feel free to email me at superman@super-trades.com

Market is volatile, not good to have too large of a position in anything. It has been an incredible first half of the year for me and I am looking forward to more of the same.

Saturday, June 28, 2008

China and NTI Plastic Waste to Oil Technology in the Future?

"Even Germans, Irish and Chinese have shown interest in my discovery," said Tokarz.
Read Article

This September 2007 article (translated from Spanish) says China, Germany and other countries have visited the T-Technology (Plastic Waste to Oil conversion) demo plant (that NTI now has the license for Website ) and have interest in purchasing the technology. See last paragraph from this September 2007 article translated from Spanish:

This plant located in Lodz has already been visited by engineers from Australia, China, Ireland and Germany as countries where there is interest in buying this technology, which is already patented by its creator, and who also already installed seven teams in different cities of its country, which will be used to process 1.4 million tons of plastic waste that occur annually in Poland, and turn them into fuels an important resource for a country that has no oil industry.
Read Article

Core Focus Stock Update - NTI

With my core focus stocks (like PDO, APWR etc. in the past), I am not concerned with consolidation and short term fluctuations. These stocks usually pop, retrace and consolidate (at this point they get bashed by short scalpers), then make a strong move higher after a certain event. For NTI, I don't think moving to the NASDAQ or the next earnings report will be the event. I think it will be any updates, progress, and growth in the Plastic Waste to Oil and the Biodegradable Plastics division. Here are some of my thoughts/vision/belief in NTI (as I presented similarly for PDO, APWR, and the like when they were in this phase) (Part 1 of 2)

Plastic Waste to Oil Technology (along with NTI's biodegradable plastics division which I will highlight in a different post) is why I think in the second half of 2008 NTI will be one of the most in demand renewable energy companies.

The move to the Nasdaq is great for exposure, and this next earnings report should mainly be about the profitable core corrosion business (which has had an approximately $0.70-$0.80 EPS run rate alone and has the opportunity to expand into new areas), but the real excitement I have about this company will be the rolling out and growth of the unique Bioplastics division and Plastic Waste to oil technology in the second half of 2008 and beyond.

This technology has been around in Europe and they have been in the process of placing it in Thailand and India and then eventually the goal is to offer it to many emerging countries. This technology safely converts plastic waste to crude oil. There are other companies that claim to be working on a technology like this. NTI's solution, according to the articles, is the first of its kind that does not require the waste to be cleansed or sorted. However there is so much plastic waste in the world it is unthinkable what the opportunity is. This technology addresses both the environment and the need for oil.

"Even Germans, Irish and Chinese have shown interest in my discovery," said Tokarz.
Read Article

"China", Germany and other countries have visited NTI's T-Technology (Plastic Waste to Oil conversion) demo plant and have interest in purchasing the technology. See last paragraph from this September 2007 article translated from Spanish:

This plant located in Lodz has already been visited by engineers from Australia, China, Ireland and Germany as countries where there is interest in buying this technology, which is already patented by its creator, and who also already installed seven teams in different cities of its country, which will be used to process 1.4 million tons of plastic waste that occur annually in Poland, and turn them into fuels an important resource for a country that has no oil industry.

Read Article

Plastic Waste Worse than Global Warming

Read the Article - 1

Read the Article - 2

More Information

Thailand Article

India Article

Read More Here

European Award

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Thoughts for the Day

Stopped out remainder CSY - First bought at $13.95 on 6/10/2008 - on 6/11/2008 it hit $17.10 or 23% gain in one day. My rule is to sell a % of my shares when up to protect profits. I was stopped out of my remaining shares today. China stocks are just in the tank right now. Will keep CSY on watch as they have great numbers. CFO leaving did not help the case and I think they will need to build a track record with the street to gain momentum. Only China stock I own right now is HEK and I think HEK is a second half 2008 story once the acquisition closes in the fall. The HEK china bottled water business is a great story and I believe the stock can win in any market once the acquisition closes.

Speaking of second half 2008 stories, I expect NTI and TAYD to shine the rest of the year. For NTI, I expect to see some traction with the biodegradable plastic line in the last two quarters of the year. Additionally, I hope to hear more about the exciting Plastic Waste to oil technology which I believe could make this stock a blockbuster. With TAYD, I expect to see backlog increases and continued EPS growth, based on my estimation that global demand for these products will increase.

The market was extremely ugly today. Will not hold too large of a long position in any stock. Will be selective on long stocks to include sectors that I believe will be in demand even in a recession (TAYD - earthquake protection, NTI - Plastic Waste to oil technology, biodegradable plastics, corrosion solutions, HEK - Chinese bottled Water, etc.). Will be on the lookout for shorting opportunities as well. Shorted C for a scalp this morning, had success with some MER puts recently. Will post when I short something that is more than a daytrade scalp.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

How to Ruin A Stock Message Board/Chat

TOP THREE ways to ruin any great stock message board or chat:

1) Allow political discussions
2) Allow personal attacks
3) Allow the posting of false and misleading information to pump a stock up or down


That is why thelion.com is my favorite message board to post on - all three of these are against the rules there thelion.com

Yet it is also the reason I personally find yahoo finance message boards utterly worthless and a waste of time. However, to their defense, I don't see how yahoo could easily police the problem.

Thoughts For The Day

PDO - Stock hit an amazing $46 today. It is up 932% from my first buy ($4.47) 46 days ago when I pounded the table with relentless research from the $5-$7 range that this stock is going to take off. A popular short side website called it overvalued today (I think I can agree with that), the stock dipped but then still closed in the $40's. Like I posted yesterday, Read Here, in my opinion, this action lately has been about shorts getting squeezed. A true nightmare for those that shorted this stock.

TVOC.OB - A new buy for me today. Typically I don't like or go near OTCBB or PK, but in my opinion this stock is undervalued and is throwing off some serious EPS. If oil stocks stay hot, this has great potential to me. Read Here

Market has been weak lately. For me, the only stocks I should be long in are those that there will be interest in even if the market is bad. Renewable energy, environmental needs (NTI, MBLX, AETI, HDSN), earthquake protection (TAYD), oil/gas (TVOC.OB, AETI), water in China (HEK), medical products in China (CSY). Some of these stocks had pullbacks for me today. I am not a daytrader and will stick with stocks I believe in. Most of these stocks I bought weeks ago and had initial pops and I took a percentage off to protect profits. Lastly, I will use mental stops to limit losses if the need be. For performance of these stocks from my first buys, see the table towards the bottom of the right hand column on the blog.

Monday, June 23, 2008

New Buy and Hold - Yes it's an OTCBB

I rarely ever buy an OTCBB or PK stock (PLEASE DO NOT EMAIL THEM TO ME AT ALL). I generally don't like them. Yet as I researched this company, it reminded me too much of my initial PDO research. However, this is a dangerous (because of lack of liquidity), ultra low float, presently illiquid, hard to fill, OTCBB stock that I can't buy size and could get trapped in. That being said, here is why I bought some:

Better numbers and smaller float than PDO and MXC

TVOC.OB - Texas Vanguard Oil Co Float 314k Shares Outstanding 1.4m Per Bloomberg
Texas Vanguard Oil Company acquires, explores, develops, and operates onshore oil and gas properties in the United States. The Company operates in Texas, as well as New Mexico and Wyoming.

In 2007 they did $0.96 EPS on $7.4m in revenues, however look at the average selling prices for 2007:

Oil Production volume - 61,293 barrels
Average sales price per barrel - $68.04

Gas Production volume - 359,969 MCF
Average sales price per MCF - $7.24
Read More here

In Q1 2008 (apparently with higher oil/gas prices kicking in) they did $0.39 EPS on $2.2m in revenues. Included in that number was approximately .06 tax effected EPS for an impairment charge. Without that charge I calculate EPS would have been approximately $0.45 for the quarter. They finished the quarter with $5.3m of cash and no significant long term debt. Read More Here

TVOC.OB closed today (June 23, 2008) at $13.15. They did $0.39 EPS for Q1 2008
PDO did $0.22 EPS for Q1 2008
MXC just reported $0.27 EPS for Q1 2008

Having done $0.96 EPS for 2007 and $0.39 EPS for Q1 2008, is it reasonable to conclude that barring any more impairment or unusual expenses and if oil/gas prices remain high then TVOC.OB could have 2008 EPS of $1.50-$2.00? These numbers appear to be higher than the current reported EPS run rate of both PDO and MXC.

Today's Thoughts - PDO Short Massacre

PDO is now up an astounding 750% from my first buy 46 days ago ($4.47). In the $5-$7 range I was posting endless research and repeated assertions why I thought this stock was going to $15+. Well it hit $37.99 today. Lately, on an day that oil pulls back, I have witnessed many message board posters stating why PDO is junk and why it is going down. Grant it the stock has well surpassed my rationale for it deserving to be much higher than a $5-$7 stock. It seems apparent to me that repeated short squeezes Read More Here have helped fuel PDO to great heights. So I decided to look at the short interest history posted by Nasdaq for PDO, MXC (another low float oil high flying short squeeze), and NTI, which I believe to be the next mover along the lines of PDO and MXC.

(I rounded numbers in this analysis)
Link to Short Interest Numbers
Bloomberg to Check Stock Floats


PDO had a low to high range between $4 and $8 during the last few weeks of April. During that time, short interest increased to 89,000 shares from 5,000, an increase of 1,660%.
PDO had a low to high range between $8 and $29.98 during the month of May. During that time, short interest increased to 206,000 shares from 89,000, an increase of 131%.
PDO had a low to high range between $8 and $29.98 during the first few weeks of June. During that time, short interest increased to 219,000, remaining fairly constant from the 206,000 at the end of May. And today, June 23, 2008 the shares hit a new high of $37.99.


MXC had a low to high range between $9 and $34 during the month of May. During that time, short interest increased to 148,000 shares from 36,000, an increase of 311%.
MXC had a low to high range between $30 and $51 during the first few weeks of June. During that time, short interest decreased to 106,000, from the 148,000 at the end of May. And in after hours today today, June 23, 2008 the shares hit $51.


NTI had a low to high range between $8 and $15 during the last few weeks of May. During that time, short interest increased to 26,000 shares from 3,000, an increase of 767%.
NTI had a low to high range between $13.50 and $20.85 during the first few weeks of June. During that time, short interest increased to 78,000, from the 26,000 at the end of May, an increase of 200%. And today today, June 23, 2008 the stock closed at $16.99.

Some Observations:

1) All three stocks made initial moves and attracted a higher short interest after the initial moves.

2) In the case of PDO and MXC, after that initial move and increase in short interest, an event (press release or earnings release or just a strong upward move) launched them to even higher highs seemingly setting off a short squeeze to the lofty levels they have remained.

In NTI's case they seem to be at the launching point prior to the event - meaning, that in my opinion, with news or a catalyst (or just a strong upward move) it could be launched into the same patterns as PDO and MXC.

3) Even after the event and the corresponding move to higher highs, short interest remained at a level fairly higher than when this entire sequence began.

4) If PDO and MXC are the result of a short squeeze then does it only take 100k-200k short shares or approximately 5-30% of the outstanding float short on a stock to cause these squeezes? Or are there large amounts of "naked shorts"Read More Here that are not accounted for in the Nasdaq short interest numbers?

These are comments about stocks I am interested in and are to document my thoughts only. This should not be considered investment advice. See Disclaimer at bottom of the blog.

Bioplastics Sources

While many bioplastics are made from corn, companies like MBLX and NTI are looking into and using other inputs to develop these biodegradable plastics.

The worldwide plastics market is about $4 billion, Lynch said. Currently, bioplastics captures less than 1% of that market. But that portion of the market has been growing at a rate of 50% per year, Lynch said, and he estimated that the bioplastics could account for $30 billion by 2015. "The market growth is tremendous. There are a lot of customers who want to change over," Dalal said.
The company's plastic is made mostly from corn, but it also uses non-food plant materials. Company officials would not specify which non-food plant source it uses.
"If you look at the market today, corn is right now the dominant feedstock because it is more readily available, but research and development is looking at non-food sources," Vineet Dalal, vice president and director global market development for the company, said in an interview. "I think you'll see a lot of that in the future. Our
biodegradable cutlery is made from a non-food based sources." Read More Here

NTI - India - Hotels, hospitals and leather units are among our key users,” a source said. Since resin availability could prove to be a limiting factor in the long run, the company is exploring the possibility of manufacturing the base resins from different feedstocks, sources added. Read More Here

MBLX - ยบ Biology and Genetic Engineering. For our fermentation system, we have
modified bacteria by inserting specific genes into the bacteria to
biologically convert sugar into PHA Natural Plastics all within the
bacteria itself. In our switchgrass program, we are modifying certain
plants, such as switchgrass, to produce and aggregate PHA Natural
Plastics within the leaves and stems which we can harvest. Continued
developments in genetic engineering and transferring to new plants or
production processes are important for our success. Read More Here

Sunday, June 22, 2008

The Week Ahead - Core Focus Stocks

1)As oil prices spike up, so does the cost of plastic materials, virtually all of which are petroleum-based. In addition, consumer groups and environmentalists around the world are in an uproar over the billions of tons of plastic waste that get dumped at sea or buried in landfills and over the health effects of related toxins. Almost 30million tons a year of plastic solid waste is dumped into the U.S., and about 5% is recycled. These trends fuel demand for novel bioplastics that aren't linked to pricey fossil fuels and don't harm the environment. Peoples says the stock market hasn't recognized these forces Read More Here

Well super-trades.com has recognized these forces and I expect these two stock to do great things:

NTI - Plastic Waste to Oil Technology and Bioplastics - All the makings of a super stock and my personal belief is this will eventually make a PDO APWR EFUT type move.

MBLX - Bioplastics - Backed by ADM and has some great patents. Should be a leader in the field and a great stock.

2) TAYD - May take a week, month, or year.....but I cannot see how demand for these products wouldn't skyrocket and believe I am sitting on an unrecognized super stock. It is my belief this stock will eventually get big respect once it gets much needed exposure. It did .12 EPS last quarter and it is undervalued to me on that alone. Now if product demand increases like I believe it will then this stock should be a top performer for me.

On his third visit to the quake zone, Premier Wen Jiabao vowed to make schools and hospitals the "sturdiest, safest and securest" buildings, and said close attention must be paid to safety during construction Read More Here

3) HPJ - Watch List - Profiled this 700k float IPO the night before it opened. In my opinion it opened too high (priced at $3.25 opened in $7's) to chase. Question in my mind is if this is another RCH or another TYM (same investment bankers). Would have to pullback before I will revisit it.

4) GBR - Watch List - This Company has an ultra small float of 520k See Bloomberg and they recently sold some assets, changed their name to New Concept Energy and announced its intention to acquire rights and develop shale sourced natural gas in areas including the Fayetteville Shale area of Arkansas. Read More Here If oil and gas is still hot and this Company buys some oil/gas properties, in my opinion it will be quite a mover.

5) HEK - Another acquisition last week and positioning itself as a great player in China's bottled water market. What's not to like?
China Water and Drinks Inc. Acquires Majority Stake in Guangzhou Grand Canyon Distilled Water Co., Ltd. For $19.1 million
Tuesday June 17, 8:30 am ET
-- Further Expands Geographic Footprint and Product Offering
-- Expects Acquisition to be Accretive to Full Year 2008 Results Read More here

6) HDSN - Next quarter's earnings should bring this Company great exposure. Will research this more soon.

7) CSY - EPS numbers are fantastic, margins are incredible. Stock just moved over from the OTCBB to the AMEX and the exposure should do it well. Stock took a dip I believe because the CFO left (which you don't like to see in Chinese companies but it happens to many companies). Everything I read about the Company sounds exciting. Barring any unknown occurrences, EPS usually speaks loudly in time.
China Sky One Medical, Inc. Obtains SFDA Approval to Produce Four New Drugs
Wednesday June 18, 8:00 am ET Read More Here

8) AETI - I like this stock as they serve the wind/oil/gas markets. I just think we need to see more news from the Company to give it exposure.
AETI Enters Wind Energy Market, Uncovers Power Infrastructure Risks
Monday June 2, 11:00 am ET
Company Announces Plans to Address Power Reliability Concerns Read More Here


These are comments about stocks I like and are to document my thoughts only. This should not be considered investment advice. See Disclaimer at bottom of the blog.

More on the Upcoming Water IPO

I have been writing about the upcoming water IPO, Energy Recovery (ERII).
Blog Post 1
Blog Post 2

It appears the Company will sell 14m shares of stock between $7-$9 the week of June 30Read More Here

Here are my recent thoughts. What the Company does and the industry they are in makes it an extremely exciting IPO to me. My simple understanding is this :The products help reduce the energy used in converting seawater to drinking water. This Company gets a "That's Hot" on the IPO Industry check.
Photobucket

Another exercise I like to do is look at the EPS the Company has reported the last fiscal year, and see what that EPS would look like when you dilute it with the IPO shares that are coming public. (Of course you need to factor in growth going forward if it is a growth industry, which you would think this is).

For the fiscal year ended 12/31/2007, the Company reported net income of approximately $5.8m on 41.4m diluted shares outstanding, or .14 EPS. The Company will have approximately 48m shares outstanding after the IPO. So that 2007 EPS would be approximately .12 if you use the pro forma share count including the IPO. Read More Here

On a historical EPS basis, it seems to me the Company is getting a generous pricing with the $7-$9 range. So on a pure valuation basis that is one of the angles I look at. Other determining factors include future growth and sector attractiveness. Some stocks in the past have become the proxy for a hot sector and get higher P/E's for anticipated future growth or because there simply aren't that many stocks in the sector. (Like many solar/wind IPO's when those stocks first appeared the last few years).

So my conclusion at this point is this is a hot IPO on a sector basis and considering the scarcity of stocks currently available in this industry. Based on a pure valuation basis this would not be one that I really want to chase. I am sure this IPO will get strong attention as many say water scarcity is the next oil. Honestly, the biggest factor in making my decision when/if I buy will now be based on where it opens.

Saturday, June 21, 2008

I Am Not A Role Model



I am not a role model
I am not paid to be a role model
I am paid when my stock picks raise havoc on the trading exchanges
Those that want to be teachers should be role models
Just because I pounded the table on PDO at $5, doesn't mean I should tell you your entries and exits


There are many great traders out there in internet land that are currently teaching others. Many have great systems that work and great styles and much can be learned. Some will go through great means to document their exact trades. Stock picking contests, websites where you can track your trades, blog by blog accounts of every exact trading move. I think that is great for those who choose to do that and there are many people and systems that I can personally learn from. (Lionmaster and many traders from thelion.com, blacksheep and elguapo from Stocks for a Different Jungle at thelion.com, Tim Sykes, themarketkid, nostradamus, and many more... all on my Blog Links)

That being said, I do not consider myself to be anything more than a guy that does great research and over time comes up with stock ideas that can potentially produce big percentage moves. I aim to be consistent in that one area. I am not about day trading because I have to make money everyday (that mindset is dangerous in my opinion). When I find a great stock I will post endless research on it. When there isn't anything interesting out there I will wait for the next stock that meets my criteria. One week I may have 5 new stocks I enter, the next week I may have none. But my stocks tend to play out over time anyway so I always have something to research.

Lastly, many have messaged me asking me to document:
- The date and time I bought a stock
- The cost of every buy
- How many shares I bought
- The date and time I sell a stock
etc.....you get the point

While I will do my best to provide whatever information I can, (and I am open to your suggestions to make this blog a great reading stop for stocks) please understand:
I am trying to do one thing and one thing only: Find stocks that can make healthy percentage moves in time. I don't have time to enter contests or focus on documenting every tick of every trade during the day. I do tons of research, post on my favorite message board (thelion.com), help moderate that board, moderate a chat room, and blog here. I am not selling anything. (I don't even have ads on my blog right now).
I am not trying to prove anything to anyone. (However, I am considering getting my results audited.) I simply want to find stocks that can make big percentage moves. (20% to 683% - PDO)

No one ever told me when to buy and sell stocks. I learned the hard way. By making mistakes. I do think that two principles are great for me:
1) Sell some stock when you are up...manage the rest accordingly if you believe the stock has more
2) Use mental or real stops to limit losses
Every trade is a case by case basis and I may change my mind on the drop of a dime

I will make every attempt to post as much information about my trades. But consider me an idea man. Hopefully an idea man that consistently produces stocks like EFUT PDO APWR etc.....ideas that can lead to big profits if they are managed correctly.

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Thoughts for the Day

You can now email me questions/comments at:

superman@super-trades.com

PDO - Sick stock...now has hit 683% gain from my first buy 44 days ago,,,,,of course I only made like 400%+....

Next PDO APWR type mover in my opinion is NTI - even though it went up 138% from my first buy, I will now add on dips as I believe this has the potential to be a super monster along the lines of PDO and APWR. I look forward to hearing updates on the company's Waste Plastic to Oil division (along with the biodegradable plastics) which I believe will catapult it to the ranks of the supermonsters. IBD ratings are looking super here as well and that is another wild card for them. Moving to the NASDAQ was a smart move to get the Company visibility. I am hoping they did that because they have a story to tell.
(not a buy recommendation or advice, documenting what I will do)

TAYD is another one.....I am patient....cannot see how demand for these products doesn't take off in the future

HEK MBLX CSY HDSN still like and think will play out in time

ESIC - popped 23% after first buy, took half off , stopped out of rest today. Will keep on watch.

AETI - some news please? Will hang in there because I like the industries and think this will play out in future

VSNT - stopped out , will keep on watch to revisit

Many of my stocks take time to play out but the ones that do win tend to be super winners

HPJ

Opened too high ($7-$8) for my liking. Will pass, see if it has big pullback. Won't chase it here.

Water IPO Update

Energy Recovery discloses expected IPO terms
06.18.08, 3:22 PM ET

NEW YORK -

Energy Recovery Inc., which develops devices used to make water desalination more efficient, disclosed the terms of its planned initial public offering in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Wednesday.

Energy Recovery expects the IPO to total 14 million shares and price between $7 and $9 apiece. The company is selling 8.1 million of the shares and a group of stockholders is offering the remaining 5.9 million shares.

Read More Here

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

New IPO on the way 700k Share Offering

HONG KONG HIGHPOWER TECHNOLOGY, INC.
I believe the symbol will be HPJ.
Offering Price $3.25
From the same bankers that brought us KUN, RCH, TYM, with similar share structure.

Year ended December 2007 - approximately $73m revenue $1.7m Net Income
Quarter ended March 2008 - approximately $18m revenue $0.7m Net Income
Read More Here
S-1/A Filing

We specialize in the development, manufacturing and marketing of rechargeable Nickel Metal Hydride (“Ni-MH”) batteries and related products primarily in China. Our batteries are used in a variety of electronic devices, including:

personal portable electronic devices, such as digital cameras, DVD players, electric razors and electric toothbrushes;

electric toys, such as radio-controlled cars;

industrial applications, such as industrial lighting, medical devices and communications equipment;

power tools; and electric bikes.

Additionally, we are in the production stage of manufacturing a line of rechargeable Lithium-ion (“Li-ion”) batteries by producing samples for potential customers. Our manufacturing and products development facilities are located in the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”), which enables us to produce cost-effective products and increases our competitiveness in the rechargeable battery market. Most of our products are distributed worldwide to markets in Europe, the United States, China, Hong Kong, Southeast Asia, Taiwan and emerging markets, such as India, Latin America and Russia.

Oops! Bashers Did it Again!

Thanks for the introduction Britney:

PDO hit $32.65 today and is now up an astounding 630% from my first buy 43 days ago at $4.47.

APWR hit $30.90 today and is now up 117% from my first buy at $14.25 on January 28, 2008. (just shy of 5 months time frame)

I did not hold these stocks until the end, but made approximately $20 per share average on my PDO shares and approximately $8 average on my APWR shares.

Here is what happened with both of these stocks:

1) I called them at a nice low entry
2) They had a nice inital nice pop
3) They had a pullback after the initial pop (PDO was around $7-$8 and APWR $15)
At the time of the first pullback - stock bashers and shorters came out of the woodwork saying many things that I could not substantiate with fact ie.
These companies are POS
These companies are scams
Insiders will dump
Funds will sell
Earnings will be terrible
Funds are shorting them
and on and on...you know the usual fearmongering by short bashers
4) They both went on to make a mockery of these bash attempts.

What do I learn?

First of all let me state in disclaimer form, I am far from being even close to 100% accurate in what I say about stocks. I have had many winners and many losers through the years. There have been many times that I have called stocks and they didnt work out like these two.

That being said, if I believe in the facts of a story (SEC filings, industry articles, studies, etc.) and what I consider to be a legitimate company , I will not be swayed or intimidated in the least by these stock bashers that attempt to bash/defame companies without providing any factual basis for their statements. Just as pump and dumpers are wrong for using false and misleading information to pump up a stock, stock bashers are equally guilty for using false and misleading information to attempt to pump a stock down.

The best shorters are the ones that can time legitimate pullbacks in these type of stocks and that don't stay short too long and overstay their welcome. Many people do that and make good money. The only reason they give is the stock is overbought and technically will pullback.

I agree some companies are sketchy at best , but I reject the notion that they all are. Some companies are the next great growth stocks, but I also reject the notion that they all are. I try to keep it balanced as much as I can.

Do I see any stocks that I think could be future Basher Monsters?
In my opinion only, (not a buy recommendation or advice)
My candidates are:
1) NTI
2) TAYD
3) HEK (may be after the acquisition closes)

CSY News

China Sky One Medical, Inc. Obtains SFDA Approval to Produce Four New Drugs
Wednesday June 18, 8:00 am ET

HARBIN, China, June 18 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- China Sky One Medical, Inc. (Amex: CSY - News; ''China Sky One'' or ''the Company''), a China-based manufacturer, marketer and distributor of pharmaceutical, medicinal and diagnostic kit products, announced today that it has obtained approval from the State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA) in the People's Republic of China for four new drugs: Tobramycin Eye Drops, Compound Zinc Sulfate Eye Drops, Ofloxacin Suppositories and Ofloxacin Gels.

Tobramycin Eye Drops have been approved for the treatment of acute infection on eyelids. Compound Zinc Sulfate Eye Drops have been approved for the treatment of acute and chronic conjunctivitis and trachoma. Ofloxacin Suppositories have been approved for the treatment for bactericidal colpitis, and Ofloxacin Gels have been approved for the treatment for bactericidal injection. The Company estimates the size of the each market at approximately $ 2 million USD to $2.4 million USD

The new approvals bring the total number of China Sky One's externally used products to 53 and its total marketed products to 102, giving the Company one of the most comprehensive pharmaceutical product portfolios in China. China Sky One is still aggressively seeking approval for other drugs with large market potential. By the end of 2008, the Company will have a total 34 new drugs submitted to the SFDA for approval.

''These four products in China have an extensive market and China Sky One expects to be able to quickly launch them and expand market share through our extensive sales network and experienced management team,'' said Mr. Yan-qing Liu, Chairman, CEO and President of China Sky One Medical, Inc. ''Going forward, we are optimistic that these new drugs will provide steady revenues for China Sky One and improve our profitability.''

About China Sky One Medical, Inc.

China Sky One Medical, Inc., a Nevada corporation, is a China based company engaged in the manufacturing, marketing and distribution of pharmaceutical, medicinal and diagnostic kit products. Through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, Harbin Tian Di Ren Medical Science and Technology Company and Harbin First Bio-Engineering Company Limited the Company manufactures and distributes over-the-counter pharmaceutical products as its primary revenue source. For more information, visit http://www.skyonemedical.com .

Safe Harbor Statement

Certain statements made in the press release constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "believe," "expect," "may," "will," "should," "project," "plan," "seek," "intend," or "anticipate" or the negative thereof or comparable terminology. Additional statements that are necessarily forward looking in nature also include, without limitation, statements relating to our research and development activities, expected revenues or sales margins, results of recent acquisitions and our ability to increase sales and expand our presence in the global market place, and risks or uncertainties relating to PRC socioeconomic issues. Such statements typically involve risks and uncertainties and may include financial projections or information regarding our future plans, objectives or performance. The Company cannot provide any assurance that it will be able to establish listing of its securities on any national or regional securities exchange or market system. Actual results could differ materially from the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements as a result of a variety of factors, including the inability of the company to meet listing standards of an exchange, risks associated with the effect of changing economic conditions in The People's Republic of China, variations in cash flow, reliance on collaborative retail partners both in China and throughout the world and on new product development, variations in new product development, risks associated with rapid technological change, and the potential of introduced or undetected flaws and defects in products, and other risk factors detailed in reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time.

Read More Here

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

TAYD - Article of Interest

Results presented in this article indicate that
the main danger for humanity on Earth may
come not from a slow climate change, but
from the rapidly increasing seismic/tectonic
activity.

Read More here

NTI - More HomeWork

NTI has 48 employees per yahoo Read More here. How can they manufacture with only 48 employees? It is called "outsourcing" or "contract manufacturing". In my opinion, this is a great strategy for a Company like this. They can meet customer demand without investing in all the overhead and the fixed and absorbed costs that come with your own manufacturing facilities. Especially with a network of independent distributors, manufacturers' representatives and joint ventures in over 50 countries.

Is NTI biodegradable plastic or Plastic Waste to Oil technology unique?
1) Biodegradable plastics business - There will be many players. But it will be a huge market. Could approach 30 billion by 2015 Read More Here

Here is what the Company says:
Patents andtrade secrets allow NTIC to produce biodegradable (compostable) plastic products with better performance properties in comparison to competitive products
currently available in the market, and at a significantly lower price. NTIC's
products include totally biodegradable compost bags, agricultural film and other
products intended for single-use disposable packaging applications.
Link to SEC Filing

Unlike the competing plastic products claiming to be 'degradable' or 'oxo-degradable' that only break down into smaller plastic fragments, Natur-Tec products will completely biodegrade within 180 days in accordance with the ASTM D6400 standard for compostable plastics and are certified 100 percent biodegradable and compostable by the Biodegradable Products Institute. Read More here

My Conclusion : Potential for Huge Market Size - With NTI's Share structure - even moderate profitable success will impact EPS

2) Plastic Waste to Oil Technology - There are other Companies on the internet that claim to have or be working on this technology. NTI's Polymer Energy technology has been proven and awarded in Europe and according to the Company has been placed in India and Thailand. Read More About it here

My Conclusion : Potential for Huge Market Size - With NTI's Share structure - even moderate profitable success will impact EPS

I see NTI as a renewable energy source company with these new divisions. One only has to look at the solar and wind sectors to see how high P/E ratio's can get for profitable renewable energy sources....I can find examples of P/E ratios from 30 to 100 for these type companies

Is there institutional ownership? The Company addressed this in the press release today as part of the rationale to move to the NASDAQ. "Northern Technologies' move to the NASDAQ will not only enhance trading liquidity in our shares and provide greater exposure to institutional investors, but also offer a better vehicle to promote company growth and reach out to shareholders," said G. Patrick Lynch, NTIC's chief executive officer. Read More Here

NTI to Nasdaq - "Promote Growth"

Promote Company Growth and Greater Exposure to Institutional Investors

Northern Technologies' move to the NASDAQ will not only enhance trading liquidity in our shares and provide greater exposure to institutional investors, but also offer a better vehicle to promote company growth and reach out to shareholders," said G. Patrick Lynch, NTIC's chief executive officer.

"Our move to the NASDAQ was a logical step, reached after careful consideration of capital market alternatives and an analysis of the electronic market model, which offered increased visibility to our investors," explained Lynch. Read More Here

NTI Moving to NASDAQ - Great News

On June 17, 2008, the Board of Directors of Northern Technologies International Corporation (“NTI”) determined to cause the listing of NTI’s common stock to be withdrawn from The American Stock Exchange in order to transfer its listing to The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC. NTI provided The American Stock Exchange the required written notice of NTI’s intention to withdraw the listing of its common stock from The American Stock Exchange on June 17, 2008.



NTI expects that its common stock will begin trading on The NASDAQ Global Market under it the new symbol “NTIC” on or about June 30, 2008. NTI’s common stock will continue to trade on The American Stock Exchange under the symbol NTI until such date.

Read More Here

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Again, My messages are not investment advice, investment solicitation or the like. Do not take action based on my messages. I do not guarantee or make claims to the accuracy of anything I post. I may buy or sell any securities I mention at anytime, even prior to posting. It is my opinion, that individuals should perform their own due diligence before investing in any stock at anytime and not base decisions on messages posted by other individuals. Individuals should assume 100% responsibility for their own investing. My messages are for my own entertainment only. LOW FLOAT stocks in particular can be volatile and are not for new traders in my opinion. I am not a registered investment advisor in any shape or form, please do not ask me for ANY investment advice.

Welcome to super-trades.com, blog home of Superman. Purpose of this blog is for me to discuss my trades and stock ideas (As well as opinions and rants on stock market related issues). I will mention the date and price I enter. As far as exits, I always try to take half off when I have some profit and if I believe in the stock, let the rest run further. I always also use mental stop limits, at which time I would exit and minimize any losses. I do not like to give price targets unless I can support them by P/E in some way or by comparison to another stock. I just post stock trades and ideas that I believe will go higher (or lower for shorts) and the reason I believe that. Individuals should have their own strategies for managing profits and losses. My stock picks tend to NOT be daytrades at all and many take time to move. I am not an investment advisor and this blog should not be considered or followed as investment advice.